Aris Thessalonikis 1-3 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis host Atromitos at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis in Super League 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Aris Thessalonikis — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Atromitos have recorded 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atromitos's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Aris Thessalonikis have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 60% of Atromitos's (from Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Atromitos's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 0 for Atromitos and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2023, ended Aris Thessalonikis 2–1 Atromitos — a Aris Thessalonikis win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 48% versus Atromitos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 57% | Atromitos 31%). Note also that Atromitos surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Aris Thessalonikis recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 2.03 xG and Atromitos 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.021 / defence 0.795 | Atromitos attack 0.776 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.097. Atromitos's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Aris Thessalonikis's projected output up. Atromitos's attack rating of 0.776 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Aris Thessalonikis have a tight defence (rating 0.795), which is pulling Atromitos's projected output down. Data: built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 35 games and Atromitos's last 35.
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 66% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 9%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.51 | Draw 4.00 | Atromitos 11.63. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (66%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Aris Thessalonikis at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 home games and Atromitos's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 home games) | Atromitos 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 66% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Aris Thessalonikis 2.03 / Atromitos 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.021 / def 0.795 | Atromitos attack 0.776 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Atromitos xG
45%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos FAQs
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 3 Atromitos.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 10) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 66% chance of winning, Atromitos a 9% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Aris Thessalonikis's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Aris Thessalonikis's last 35 games and Atromitos's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
66%
1.51
25%
4.00
9%
11.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.71
0.68
Atromitos xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
11.63
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
1%
88.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.68 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 18W 7D 17L from 42 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 18L across 42 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.45 PPG, Atromitos on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 14W 2D 5L from their last 21 home games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atromitos's away record stands at 2W 6D 13L across their last 21 away games, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atromitos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 0.98 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis (Home) vs Atromitos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos Form FAQs
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 18W 7D 17L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 10W 14D 18L in their last 42 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or Atromitos away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.10 PPG; Atromitos away: 0.57 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atromitos in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Aris Thessalonikis
3
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Aris Thessalonikis have won 6, Atromitos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 57%, Atromitos 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 38% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atromitos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Aris Thessalonikis's games and 57% of Atromitos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent games and 38% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 71% of Atromitos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Aris Thessalonikis.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-3 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 2.03 xG and Atromitos 0.68 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Atromitos outscored their 0.68 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Atromitos attack 0.78 / defence 1.26, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 66% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 9%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Atromitos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 57%, Atromitos 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.45 PPG, Atromitos 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.