Olympiakos Piraeus 2-4 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 10). Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
PAOK have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, PAOK have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Olympiakos Piraeus's favour (2.60 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 40% versus PAOK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | PAOK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 xG and PAOK 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.479 / defence 0.722 | PAOK attack 1.085 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.045. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack rating of 1.479 — their 2.17 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus have a tight defence (rating 0.722), which is pulling PAOK's projected output down. Data: built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 35 games and PAOK's last 35.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 66% | Draw 24% | PAOK 10%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.52 | Draw 4.14 | PAOK 9.87. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (66%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Olympiakos Piraeus 40% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 10 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 66% | Draw 24% | PAOK 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 / PAOK 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.479 / def 0.722 | PAOK attack 1.085 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.82
PAOK xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK FAQs
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 4 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 10) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 66% chance of winning, PAOK a 10% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.48) and PAOK's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.08x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Olympiakos Piraeus's last 35 games and PAOK's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
66%
1.52
24%
4.14
10%
9.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.99
0.82
PAOK xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
9.87
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
11%
8.78
Win to Nil
29%
3.45
1%
86.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.82 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 28W 12D 5L from 45 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 24W 12D 9L across 45 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.13 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.87 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 15W 5D 2L from their last 22 home games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 9W 8D 5L across their last 22 away games, a 1.59 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.60 scored and 0.87 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games; PAOK in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAOK
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 28W 12D 5L in their last 45 games (2.13 PPG), while PAOK have gone 24W 12D 9L in their last 45 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.27 PPG; PAOK away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, PAOK in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK, the earliest from May 2024. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3, PAOK have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 41%, PAOK 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 46% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; PAOK in 36%; PAOK in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 46% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 46% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 82% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Olympiakos Piraeus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-4 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.17 xG and PAOK 0.82 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 0.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.48 / defence 0.72 against PAOK attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 66% | Draw 24% | PAOK 10%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a PAOK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 10% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 51%, PAOK 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
PAOK's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13 PPG, PAOK 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.