Atromitos 1-1 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atromitos face Panserraikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atromitos host Panserraikos at Stadio Peristeriou in Super League 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Atromitos — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Atromitos have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Atromitos are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 9 matches, Panserraikos stand at 3W 3D 3L — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.89 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings (11%).
Panserraikos's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across their last 5 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.33 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Atromitos) versus 1.33 (Panserraikos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (last 9 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Panserraikos in-play and half-time data (last 9 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atromitos 67% and Panserraikos 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 56% | Panserraikos 44%). Note also that Panserraikos surrender HT leads in 75% of cases while Atromitos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.96 xG and Panserraikos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.934 / defence 1.026 | Panserraikos attack 0.837 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.135. Panserraikos's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atromitos's projected output up. Data: built from Atromitos's last 36 games and Panserraikos's last 9.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 57% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 15%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 1.74 | Draw 3.63 | Panserraikos 6.61. The model has a clear lean to Atromitos (57%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atromitos's last 10 home games and Panserraikos's last 5 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Atromitos 40% (last 10 home games) | Panserraikos 40% (last 5 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 57% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Atromitos 1.96 / Panserraikos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.934 / def 1.026 | Panserraikos attack 0.837 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Panserraikos xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Panserraikos FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Panserraikos kick off?
Atromitos vs Panserraikos kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Atromitos 1 - 1 Panserraikos.
Where is Atromitos vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Panserraikos part of?
Atromitos vs Panserraikos is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 11) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 57% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Atromitos and Panserraikos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atromitos vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.93x the league average against Panserraikos's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Atromitos's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 36 games and Panserraikos's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
57%
1.74
28%
3.63
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.94
0.97
Panserraikos xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
2%
46.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Panserraikos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Atromitos and 0.97 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Panserraikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atromitos come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.33 PPG from 9 outings (3W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atromitos on 1.00 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Atromitos's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across their last 3 home games, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Atromitos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.33 points per game from their last 3 away games (0W 1D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panserraikos's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atromitos are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.44 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs Panserraikos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
Panserraikos
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs Panserraikos Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 3W 3D 3L in their last 9 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Panserraikos away?
Atromitos's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.67 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was on 21 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atromitos have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 May 2026, when Atromitos won Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Atromitos's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Atromitos
5
Draws
0
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Panserraikos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Panserraikos?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 4, Panserraikos have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Panserraikos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 May 2026: Atromitos 6-0 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Panserraikos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 100% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 67%, Panserraikos 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Atromitos) and 67% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 33% of games; Panserraikos in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Panserraikos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Panserraikos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Atromitos's recent matches and 33% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Panserraikos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Atromitos's recent games and 67% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Panserraikos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Atromitos's recent matches and 67% of Panserraikos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos and Panserraikos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 11, as Atromitos and Panserraikos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.96 xG and Panserraikos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atromitos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Panserraikos attack 0.84 / defence 1.35, drawn from 36/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 57% | Draw 28% | Panserraikos 15%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 56%, Panserraikos 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Panserraikos's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.00 PPG, Panserraikos 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panserraikos (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.