SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face SV Wehen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SV Wehen travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, SV Wehen have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SV Wehen have posted 4W 0D 3L from their last 7 away outings — 1.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 1.70 PPG versus SV Wehen's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
SV Wehen in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% versus SV Wehen 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% | SV Wehen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.77 xG and SV Wehen 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.183 / defence 0.758 | SV Wehen attack 0.914 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.419. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have a tight defence (rating 0.758), which is pulling SV Wehen's projected output down. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 47 games and SV Wehen's last 13.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 20%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.83 | Draw 3.89 | SV Wehen 5.12. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 7 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 30% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 57% (last 7 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.77 / SV Wehen 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.183 / def 0.758 | SV Wehen attack 0.914 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.98
SV Wehen xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 0 SV Wehen.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 55% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.18x the league average against SV Wehen's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Wehen's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 47 games and SV Wehen's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
55%
1.83
26%
3.89
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.76
0.98
SV Wehen xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
21%
4.88
3%
30.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.98 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 7W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
SV Wehen's form line: 8W 3D 4L from 15 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.60 PPG, SV Wehen on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2.29 PPG from their last 7 home games (5W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.60 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 4W 0D 3L from their last 7 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.40 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Wehen away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 2.29 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.71 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, SV Wehen have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 April 2024: SV Wehen 3-5 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29%, SV Wehen 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 57% (SV Wehen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 57% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 57% of SV Wehen's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Wehen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 71% of SV Wehen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SV Wehen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Wehen 2-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.77 xG and SV Wehen 0.98 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SV Wehen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.18 / defence 0.76 against SV Wehen attack 0.91 / defence 0.91, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 20%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53%, SV Wehen 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
SV Wehen's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.60 PPG, SV Wehen 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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