SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer plays host to SpVgg Greuther Fürth versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 0 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.47 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.236 / defence 0.884 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.365 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.385. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack strength of 1.365 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 46 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 41%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.47 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.236 / def 0.884 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.365 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 32% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.24x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (1.36x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
32%
3.08
27%
3.74
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.14
1.67
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
19%
5.31
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
6%
16.38
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.67 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 15W 14D 17L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 23W 10D 13L from 46 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.95 PPG from 22 outings (12W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.28 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.83 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 10D 13L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.95 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 on 17 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 54% (Fortuna Düsseldorf). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 46% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 54% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.47 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.67 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.24 / defence 0.88 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.36 / defence 0.74, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 41%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.28. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.