Hamburger SV 2-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 79% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Hamburger SV welcome Eintracht Braunschweig to Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Friday 24 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Hamburger SV have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hamburger SV at home: 8W 1D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hamburger SV, 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended Hamburger SV 4–2 Eintracht Braunschweig — a Hamburger SV win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 60% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 62% | Eintracht Braunschweig 57%). Note also that Eintracht Braunschweig surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Hamburger SV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.45 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.248 / defence 0.672 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.576 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.612 / away 1.375. Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hamburger SV's projected output up. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.576 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.53. Hamburger SV have a tight defence (rating 0.672), which is pulling Eintracht Braunschweig's projected output down. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 47 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 47.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 79% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Braunschweig 5%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.27 | Draw 6.40 | Eintracht Braunschweig 18.38. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (79%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 79% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 50% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 November 2023 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 79% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Braunschweig 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Hamburger SV 2.45 / Eintracht Braunschweig 0.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.248 / def 0.672 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.576 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.612 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.53
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
38%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 24 November 2023 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hamburger SV 2 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 79% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 5% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.25) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 0.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 47 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
79%
1.27
16%
6.40
5%
18.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
3 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.98
0.53
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.27
79%
Home win
6.40
16%
Draw
18.38
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
59%
1.70
9%
11.58
Win to Nil
46%
2.16
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 15.2 | 8.1 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.53 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 26W 9D 12L from 47 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 25L across 47 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 17W 3D 3L from their last 23 home games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.85 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 2W 6D 15L across their last 23 away games, a 0.52 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.94 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.11 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 26W 9D 12L in their last 47 games (1.85 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 11D 25L in their last 47 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.35 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.52 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 11 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Apr 2024, when Hamburger SV won Eintracht Braunschweig 0-4 Hamburger SV.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2025: Hamburger SV 2-4 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 56%, Eintracht Braunschweig 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Hamburger SV and 61% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hamburger SV's games and 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Hamburger SV's matches and 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do Hamburger SV and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 65% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Eintracht Braunschweig 2-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.45 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.53 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.25 / defence 0.67 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.58 / defence 1.22, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 79% | Draw 16% | Eintracht Braunschweig 5%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 79%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 62%, Eintracht Braunschweig 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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