SC Paderborn 07 0-4 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face Holstein Kiel.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus Holstein Kiel in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Holstein Kiel (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Holstein Kiel's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for SC Paderborn 07, 2.00 for Holstein Kiel — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for Holstein Kiel and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–2 Holstein Kiel — a Holstein Kiel win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Holstein Kiel half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 62% and Holstein Kiel 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 73% | Holstein Kiel 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.47 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.109 / defence 1.034 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.048 / defence 0.823. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.374. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 55 games and Holstein Kiel's last 55.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 38%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.68 | Draw 4.07 | Holstein Kiel 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.47 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Holstein Kiel's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 70% (last 10 home games) | Holstein Kiel 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.47 / Holstein Kiel 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.109 / def 1.034 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.048 / def 0.823 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Holstein Kiel xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
SC Paderborn 07 0 - 4 Holstein Kiel.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 37% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.11) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.05x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 55 games and Holstein Kiel's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
37%
2.68
25%
4.07
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.96
1.49
Holstein Kiel xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
23%
4.43
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.49 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 55 games, going 26W 11D 18L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.55 PPG from 55 outings (24W 13D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.55 for Holstein Kiel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 17W 2D 8L across their last 27 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.63 points per game from their last 27 away games (12W 8D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.73 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 71%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs Holstein Kiel (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 26W 11D 18L in their last 55 games (1.62 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 24W 13D 18L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Holstein Kiel away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.96 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won SC Paderborn 07 7-2 Holstein Kiel on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 January 2026: Holstein Kiel 2-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 59%, Holstein Kiel 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SC Paderborn 07 and 59% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs Holstein Kiel Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 63% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 59% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Holstein Kiel matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 74% of Holstein Kiel's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Holstein Kiel run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SC Paderborn 07 0-4 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.47 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.49 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.05 / defence 0.82, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 25% | Holstein Kiel 38%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 73%, Holstein Kiel 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.62 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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