Holstein Kiel 1-0 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host FC Schalke 04 at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 February 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Holstein Kiel) versus 1.60 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Holstein Kiel, 1 for FC Schalke 04 and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–0 with Holstein Kiel winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 72% and FC Schalke 04 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 68% | FC Schalke 04 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 2.62 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.118 / defence 1.165 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.900 / defence 1.431. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.383. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.431 — this is suppressing Holstein Kiel's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Holstein Kiel games / 20 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 62% | Draw 18% | FC Schalke 04 20%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | FC Schalke 04 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.07. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.07 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.62 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.07 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 80% | FC Schalke 04 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Feb 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 62% | Draw 18% | FC Schalke 04 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 71% | xG Holstein Kiel 2.62 / FC Schalke 04 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.118 / def 1.165 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.900 / def 1.431 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.62
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.45
FC Schalke 04 xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 February 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 0 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 62% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
Record (3 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 1W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (1.12) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.4%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
62%
1.60
18%
5.59
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.62
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
4.07
1.45
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.60
62%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
7%
13.72
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
1%
69.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.4 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.62 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.45 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 4.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 23W 13D 18L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 14W 12D 28L from 54 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for FC Schalke 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Schalke 04.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.41 PPG from 27 outings (11W 5D 11L).
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 6D 17L from 27 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.26 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC Schalke 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.41 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Holstein Kiel at 82%, FC Schalke 04 at 52%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Holstein Kiel and 59% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Holstein Kiel's games and 52% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 59% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out FC Schalke 04 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat FC Schalke 04 1-0 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 2.62 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.45 xG, a combined 4.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Holstein Kiel fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Schalke 04 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.12 / defence 1.17 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.90 / defence 1.43, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 62% | Draw 18% | FC Schalke 04 20%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 68%, FC Schalke 04 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.