Hansa Rostock 2-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hamburger SV (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Hansa Rostock face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ostseestadion plays host to Hansa Rostock versus Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Hansa Rostock have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Hansa Rostock's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hamburger SV (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Hamburger SV have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Hamburger SV are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) — Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hamburger SV in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Hamburger SV, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Hansa Rostock 0–2 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 40% versus Hamburger SV 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 47% | Hamburger SV 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.20 xG and Hamburger SV 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.835 / defence 1.086 | Hamburger SV attack 1.169 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.374. Data: built from Hansa Rostock's last 55 games and Hamburger SV's last 55.
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 26% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 50%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.81 | Draw 4.22 | Hamburger SV 2.00. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hansa Rostock's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hansa Rostock 60% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 26% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Hansa Rostock 1.20 / Hamburger SV 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.835 / def 1.086 | Hamburger SV attack 1.169 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Hamburger SV xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV part of?
Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 26% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.17x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from Hansa Rostock's last 55 games and Hamburger SV's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
26%
3.81
24%
4.22
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.95
1.75
Hamburger SV xG
3.81
26%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
5%
21.83
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.2 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.75 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 18W 8D 29L from 55 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 30W 10D 15L across 55 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 10W 2D 15L from their last 27 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 11W 7D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.04 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 62%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
Hansa Rostock (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hansa Rostock
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 18W 8D 29L in their last 55 games (1.13 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 30W 10D 15L in their last 55 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.19 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won Hamburger SV 3-0 Hansa Rostock on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
1
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hansa Rostock have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Hansa Rostock 2-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 44%, Hamburger SV 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hansa Rostock) and 63% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hansa Rostock vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 63% of Hamburger SV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 63% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 78% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 22, as Hansa Rostock and Hamburger SV drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.20 xG and Hamburger SV 1.75 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.83 / defence 1.09 against Hamburger SV attack 1.17 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 26% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 50%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 47%, Hamburger SV 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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