SC Paderborn 07 1-2 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face 1. FC Köln.

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Fixture Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 welcome 1. FC Köln to Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 29 March 2025 at 12:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

1. FC Köln — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

When travelling, 1. FC Köln have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.90 (1. FC Köln). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, 1. FC Köln 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended SC Paderborn 07 2–1 1. FC Köln — a SC Paderborn 07 win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

1. FC Köln trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 68% and 1. FC Köln 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 67% | 1. FC Köln 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.64 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.224 / defence 1.097 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.717 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.281. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.717 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 60 games and 1. FC Köln's last 26.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 51% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 22%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.98 | Draw 3.63 | 1. FC Köln 4.57. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 60% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 20% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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