1. FC Köln 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host SV Darmstadt 98 at RheinEnergieSTADION in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln at RheinEnergieSTADION this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
1. FC Köln are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Köln register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 2 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2024, ended 1–5 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 51% versus SV Darmstadt 98 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 42% | SV Darmstadt 98 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.96 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.014 / defence 0.900 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.948 / defence 1.323. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.280. SV Darmstadt 98 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.323 — this is suppressing 1. FC Köln's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 1. FC Köln games / 25 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | SV Darmstadt 98 5.00. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Köln (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 60% | SV Darmstadt 98 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: RheinEnergieSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.96 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.014 / def 0.900 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.948 / def 1.323 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
1. FC Köln 2 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 57% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 1.01x the league average against SV Darmstadt 98's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Darmstadt 98's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
57%
1.77
24%
4.26
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.05
1.09
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
35.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.09 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Köln come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 17D 24L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 0.81 PPG from 59 outings (11W 15D 33L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.20 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Köln's home form reads 10W 7D 12L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 0.79 points per game from 29 outings (5W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.25 scored and 2.15 conceded.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 11W 15D 33L in their last 59 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.28 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting SV Darmstadt 98 specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
0
Draws
2
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when 1. FC Köln 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 52%, SV Darmstadt 98 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (1. FC Köln) and 69% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 28% of games; SV Darmstadt 98 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of 1. FC Köln's games and 59% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 69% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do 1. FC Köln and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out SV Darmstadt 98 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat SV Darmstadt 98 2-1 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.96 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.09 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.01 / defence 0.90 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.95 / defence 1.32, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 24% | SV Darmstadt 98 20%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 42%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.20 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.