Preußen Münster 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Preußen Münster at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Preußen Münster face Eintracht Braunschweig.

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Analysis & Preview

Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Preußen-Stadion to take on Preußen Münster in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 March 2025 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Preußen Münster have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Preußen Münster's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Eintracht Braunschweig — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 3D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Preußen Münster) versus 1.00 (Eintracht Braunschweig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Preußen Münster have won 0, Eintracht Braunschweig 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Preußen Münster 1–1 Eintracht Braunschweig — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Preußen Münster trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Eintracht Braunschweig trading profile (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preußen Münster 54% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 46% | Eintracht Braunschweig 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.20 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.707 / defence 0.984 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.792 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.267. Preußen Münster's attack rating of 0.707 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Preußen Münster's last 26 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 60.

Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 39% | Draw 33% | Eintracht Braunschweig 28%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 2.58 | Draw 3.03 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Preußen Münster are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Preußen Münster offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Preußen Münster 50% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 away games).

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