Rodez 1-2 Laval – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Laval fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez at Stade Paul Lignon this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Laval's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Laval, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Laval away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Rodez, 1.10 for Laval — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rodez lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Laval winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Laval — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 59% versus Laval 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 47% | Laval 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.22 xG and Laval 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.279 / defence 0.998 | Laval attack 0.905 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Rodez carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Laval's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Rodez games / 59 Laval games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Laval 31%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Laval 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Rodez 70% | Laval 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Laval | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Laval 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Rodez 1.22 / Laval 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 1.279 / def 0.998 | Laval attack 0.905 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.232 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Rodez (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Laval xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Laval kick off?
Rodez vs Laval kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Laval?
Rodez 1 - 2 Laval.
Where is Rodez vs Laval being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Laval part of?
Rodez vs Laval is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Laval?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 41% chance of winning, Laval a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Laval?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Rodez and Laval will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Laval have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Laval?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 0 | Laval 2W.
What form are Rodez and Laval in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Laval (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Rodez's attack rating (1.28) and Laval's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Laval's attack (0.91x) against Rodez's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 58/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.50
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.25
1.02
Laval xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Laval?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rodez and Laval expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Rodez and 1.02 for Laval, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Laval?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 20D 20L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Laval sit at 1.36 PPG from 58 outings (23W 10D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Laval is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Rodez against 1.36 for Laval. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rodez's home form reads 10W 10D 8L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Laval have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Laval are on 1.10 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Laval
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Laval in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 18W 20D 20L in their last 58 games (1.28 PPG), while Laval have gone 23W 10D 25L in their last 58 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Laval away?
Rodez's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.43 PPG; Laval away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Rodez or Laval been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Laval in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Laval — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Rodez
2
Draws
5
Laval
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Laval?
From 8 meetings on record, Rodez have won 1, Laval have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Laval last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Laval 0-0 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Laval?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 64%, Laval 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Rodez) and 46% (Laval).
On the defensive side: Laval in 39%; Laval in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Laval away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Laval?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Rodez's recent matches and 36% of Laval's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Laval usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Rodez's recent games and 46% of Laval's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Laval tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Laval in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Laval defy the odds to beat Rodez 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Rodez 1-2 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.22 xG and Laval 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Laval outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 1.28 / defence 1.00 against Laval attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 41% | Draw 29% | Laval 31%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Laval win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 47%, Laval 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Laval's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.28 PPG, Laval 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.