Auxerre 1-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Auxerre at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Guingamp encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Guingamp in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Auxerre have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Auxerre have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.

Guingamp's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward Auxerre. A 0.50 PPG lead over Guingamp (2.00 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Guingamp edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Nov 2023, ended Auxerre 1–2 Guingamp — a Guingamp win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Auxerre — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Guingamp — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 61% versus Guingamp 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Guingamp 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Auxerre surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Guingamp have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Guingamp surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Auxerre recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.23 xG and Guingamp 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.351 / defence 1.064 | Guingamp attack 0.944 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.232 / away 1.133. Auxerre carry an above-average attack rating of 1.351 — their 1.23 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Guingamp bring a tight defence (rating 0.737, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Auxerre's projected output down. Data: built from Auxerre's last 21 games and Guingamp's last 59.

Result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 28% | Guingamp 34%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.62 | Draw 3.59 | Guingamp 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 50% (last 10 home games) | Guingamp 30% (last 10 away games).

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