Guingamp 3-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Guingamp face Rodez.

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Fixture Analysis

Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2 (matchday 21). Kick-off is Tuesday 23 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Guingamp have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Rodez — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Rodez away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guingamp at 1.50 PPG versus Rodez's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Guingamp have won 2, Rodez 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.2 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Guingamp 0–0 Rodez — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Rodez trading profile (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 49% versus Rodez 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 44% | Rodez 46%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Guingamp surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Rodez have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.48 xG and Rodez 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.991 / defence 0.948 | Rodez attack 0.982 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.134. Rodez's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Guingamp's projected output up. Data: built from Guingamp's last 58 games and Rodez's last 57.

Result probabilities: Guingamp 47% | Draw 26% | Rodez 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.13 | Draw 3.84 | Rodez 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Guingamp 30% (last 10 home games) | Rodez 80% (last 10 away games).

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