Rodez 0-0 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rodez at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rodez face Dunkerque.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

Dunkerque travel to Stade Paul Lignon to take on Rodez in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rodez stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Rodez at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rodez are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Dunkerque have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Dunkerque have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Rodez) versus 1.40 (Dunkerque). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Rodez have won 1, Dunkerque 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Rodez 2–1 Dunkerque — a Rodez win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Rodez in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Dunkerque in-play tendencies (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 78% versus Dunkerque 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 70% | Dunkerque 39%). Note also that Dunkerque surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.67 xG and Dunkerque 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 1.244 / defence 1.107 | Dunkerque attack 0.997 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Data: built from Rodez's last 60 games and Dunkerque's last 23.

Result probabilities: Rodez 48% | Draw 24% | Dunkerque 28%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.09 | Draw 4.15 | Dunkerque 3.57. Rodez hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rodez's last 10 home games and Dunkerque's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rodez 70% (last 10 home games) | Dunkerque 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights