Bordeaux 1-0 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bordeaux vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Grenoble travel to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to take on Bordeaux. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 February 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Bordeaux have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bordeaux, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Grenoble — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Grenoble, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grenoble's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Bordeaux) versus 1.90 (Grenoble). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bordeaux, 1 for Grenoble and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Grenoble winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Grenoble trading profile (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 42% versus Grenoble 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bordeaux 43% | Grenoble 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.17 xG and Grenoble 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.050 / defence 0.897 | Grenoble attack 1.046 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.110. Data: 60 Bordeaux games / 61 Grenoble games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 39% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 32%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Grenoble 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Bordeaux 50% | Grenoble 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 39% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Bordeaux 1.17 / Grenoble 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.050 / def 0.897 | Grenoble attack 1.046 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Grenoble xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Grenoble kick off?
Bordeaux vs Grenoble kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Grenoble?
Bordeaux 1 - 0 Grenoble.
Where is Bordeaux vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Grenoble part of?
Bordeaux vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 39% chance of winning, Grenoble a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bordeaux and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Grenoble?
Record (3 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 1 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Bordeaux and Grenoble in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Grenoble (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bordeaux's attack at 1.05x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grenoble's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
39%
2.58
29%
3.45
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.21
1.04
Grenoble xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
14%
7.31
10%
9.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.04 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Bordeaux have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 28W 14D 18L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Bordeaux is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Grenoble's form line: 24W 18D 18L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for Grenoble is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 1.63 PPG, Grenoble on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bordeaux have posted 2.00 PPG from 29 outings (17W 7D 5L).
On the road, Grenoble have gone 9W 8D 12L from 29 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.12 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Grenoble in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 28W 14D 18L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 24W 18D 18L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Grenoble away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.00 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Grenoble in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2023, when Bordeaux won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bordeaux's record when hosting Grenoble specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bordeaux
1
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 2, Grenoble have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Bordeaux 1-0 Grenoble.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Grenoble?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Grenoble see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 41%, Grenoble 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bordeaux) and 38% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Grenoble in 34%; Grenoble in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 31% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bordeaux's recent games and 38% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Grenoble tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Grenoble 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Grenoble 1-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.17 xG and Grenoble 1.04 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Grenoble landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.05 / defence 0.90 against Grenoble attack 1.05 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 39% | Draw 29% | Grenoble 32%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 43%, Grenoble 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Grenoble's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.63 PPG, Grenoble 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Grenoble (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.