Auxerre 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Angers.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Auxerre welcome Angers to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Auxerre have gone 6W 4D 0L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Auxerre's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Angers stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Angers have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Auxerre) versus 2.00 (Angers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Auxerre, 0 for Angers and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Auxerre 2–2 Angers — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Angers in-play and half-time data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 62% versus Angers 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Angers 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.98 xG and Angers 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 1.309 / defence 1.054 | Angers attack 1.033 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.120. Auxerre carry an above-average attack rating of 1.309 — their 1.98 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Angers's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Auxerre's projected output up. Data: built from Auxerre's last 23 games and Angers's last 23.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 55% | Draw 22% | Angers 23%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 1.82 | Draw 4.61 | Angers 4.31. The model has a clear lean to Auxerre (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.98 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Auxerre's last 10 home games and Angers's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 60% (last 10 home games) | Angers 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 55% | Draw 22% | Angers 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Auxerre 1.98 / Angers 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 1.309 / def 1.054 | Angers attack 1.033 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Angers xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Angers FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Angers kick off?
Auxerre vs Angers kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Auxerre vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Angers part of?
Auxerre vs Angers is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 55% chance of winning, Angers a 23% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Auxerre and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Auxerre vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (1.31) and Angers's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 23 games and Angers's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
55%
1.82
22%
4.61
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Auxerre xG
Total xG
3.20
1.22
Angers xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
14%
7.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
3%
31.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.22 for Angers, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Angers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Auxerre come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 19D 22L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.05 PPG from 61 outings (18W 10D 33L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.30 PPG, Angers on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Auxerre's home form reads 11W 10D 9L across their last 30 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.67 points per game from their last 30 away games (5W 5D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.16 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Angers
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Angers in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 20W 19D 22L in their last 61 games (1.30 PPG), while Angers have gone 18W 10D 33L in their last 61 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Angers away?
Auxerre's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.43 PPG; Angers away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Auxerre's record when hosting Angers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Auxerre
3
Draws
3
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Angers?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 3, Angers have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 57%, Angers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Auxerre) and 53% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Auxerre have failed to score in 27% of games; Angers in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Auxerre's recent matches and 43% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Auxerre's recent games and 53% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Auxerre's recent matches and 80% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Angers 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.98 xG and Angers 1.22 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Angers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 1.31 / defence 1.05 against Angers attack 1.03 / defence 1.22, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 55% | Draw 22% | Angers 23%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Angers 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Angers's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.30 PPG, Angers 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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