Rodez 4-1 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rodez face Angers.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon plays host to Rodez versus Angers in Ligue 2 (matchday 6). Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Rodez have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rodez at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Rodez are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Angers's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Angers's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Rodez, 1.20 for Angers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Angers — key trading statistics (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 50% versus Angers 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rodez 36% | Angers 64%). Note also that Angers surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Rodez recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.11 xG and Angers 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.913 / defence 1.040 | Angers attack 0.772 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 0.992. Angers's attack rating of 0.772 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.80. Data: built from Rodez's last 42 games and Angers's last 5.
Result probabilities: Rodez 42% | Draw 32% | Angers 26%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.36 | Draw 3.14 | Angers 3.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 70% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rodez 50% (last 10 home games) | Angers 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 6 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 16 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 42% | Draw 32% | Angers 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% (Under 70%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Rodez 1.11 / Angers 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.913 / def 1.040 | Angers attack 0.772 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.282 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Rodez (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Angers xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rodez vs Angers FAQs
What time does Rodez vs Angers kick off?
Rodez vs Angers kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Angers?
Rodez 4 - 1 Angers.
Where is Rodez vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Angers part of?
Rodez vs Angers is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 6) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 42% chance of winning, Angers a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Rodez and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Rodez vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (70%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rodez's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.77x) against Rodez's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from Rodez's last 42 games and Angers's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 1-0 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
42%
2.36
32%
3.14
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.91
0.80
Angers xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
8%
11.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.1 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rodez vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Rodez and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Rodez and 0.80 for Angers, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 11W 15D 16L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Angers's form line: 6W 7D 29L from 42 games, 0.60 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Rodez are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Angers.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.05 PPG from their last 21 home games (5W 7D 9L).
On the road, Angers have gone 2W 3D 16L from their last 21 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rodez come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.90 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
Rodez (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rodez
Early Season
Angers
Early Season
❓ Rodez vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Rodez and Angers in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 11W 15D 16L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Angers have gone 6W 7D 29L in their last 42 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Angers away?
Rodez's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.05 PPG; Angers away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 3 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Rodez
0
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Rodez vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Angers?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Rodez have won 1, Angers have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 February 2024: Angers 2-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 57%, Angers 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Rodez) and 57% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 33% of games; Angers in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rodez vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rodez and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Rodez's recent matches and 38% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rodez and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Rodez's recent games and 57% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Rodez's recent matches and 81% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rodez run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Angers 4-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.11 xG and Angers 0.80 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against Angers attack 0.77 / defence 0.95, drawn from 42/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 42% | Draw 32% | Angers 26%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 36%, Angers 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Angers's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rodez arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.60. That form edge translated into the three points. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm. Angers (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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