Quevilly 2-3 Concarneau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Quevilly vs Concarneau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Concarneau travel to Stade Robert Diochon to take on Quevilly. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Quevilly have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Quevilly at Stade Robert Diochon this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Concarneau — All Games: 0W 2D 3L from 5 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Concarneau have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Quevilly 0.70 PPG, Concarneau 0.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Quevilly in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Concarneau in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they fail to score in 80% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Quevilly 40% | Concarneau 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 40% | Concarneau 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.22 xG and Concarneau 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 0.766 / defence 0.999 | Concarneau attack 0.651 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 0.992. Quevilly's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Concarneau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Quevilly games / 5 Concarneau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 50% | Draw 31% | Concarneau 19%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Concarneau 5.26. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Concarneau's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Concarneau 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Concarneau | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 50% | Draw 31% | Concarneau 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 34% | xG Quevilly 1.22 / Concarneau 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 0.766 / def 0.999 | Concarneau attack 0.651 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.282 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Concarneau xG
34%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Concarneau kick off?
Quevilly vs Concarneau kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 September 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Concarneau?
Quevilly 2 - 3 Concarneau.
Where is Quevilly vs Concarneau being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Concarneau part of?
Quevilly vs Concarneau is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Concarneau?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 50% chance of winning, Concarneau a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Concarneau?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Quevilly and Concarneau will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Concarneau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Concarneau?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Quevilly and Concarneau in?
Quevilly (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Concarneau (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (0.77) and Concarneau's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Concarneau's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (17.1%), 1-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.23
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Quevilly xG
Total xG
1.86
0.65
Concarneau xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Concarneau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Concarneau expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.65 for Concarneau, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Concarneau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Quevilly have picked up 0.40 PPG on a 0W 2D 3L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Quevilly, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Concarneau's form line: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games, 0.40 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Concarneau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Quevilly on 0.40 PPG, Concarneau on 0.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Quevilly are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Concarneau are on 0.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Concarneau in 20%.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Concarneau
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Concarneau in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 games (0.40 PPG), while Concarneau have gone 0W 2D 3L in their last 5 (0.40 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Quevilly and Concarneau runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Quevilly
1
Draws
1
Concarneau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Concarneau?
From 2 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 0, Concarneau have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Concarneau last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Concarneau 0-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Quevilly and Concarneau?
Concarneau have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Concarneau see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Quevilly 40% BTTS, Concarneau 20%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Quevilly and 20% for Concarneau.
On the defensive side: Quevilly have failed to score in 60% of games; Concarneau in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Concarneau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Concarneau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Quevilly's recent matches and 20% of Concarneau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Concarneau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Quevilly's recent games and 20% of Concarneau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Concarneau tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Concarneau in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Concarneau defy the odds to beat Quevilly 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Concarneau beat Quevilly 2-3 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.22 xG and Concarneau 0.65 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Concarneau outscored their 0.65 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 0.77 / defence 1.00 against Concarneau attack 0.65 / defence 1.24, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 50% | Draw 31% | Concarneau 19%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Concarneau win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 40%, Concarneau 20%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Concarneau's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 0.40 PPG, Concarneau 0.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Concarneau win broke the near-deadlock. Quevilly scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Concarneau scored 3 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.