Angers 2-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Angers face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Angers and Bastia meet at Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 2 (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Angers have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Angers's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bastia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bastia's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Angers, 1.50 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Angers's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) — Angers have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bastia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 57% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 64% | Bastia 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.08 xG and Bastia 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.900 / defence 0.969 | Bastia attack 0.956 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.034. Data: built from Angers's last 6 games and Bastia's last 44.
Result probabilities: Angers 37% | Draw 32% | Bastia 31%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.68 | Draw 3.14 | Bastia 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Angers at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Angers 60% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 7 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 37% | Draw 32% | Bastia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Angers 1.08 / Bastia 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.900 / def 0.969 | Bastia attack 0.956 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Angers (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Bastia xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Angers vs Bastia kick off?
Angers vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Bastia?
Angers 2 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Angers vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Bastia part of?
Angers vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 7) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 37% chance of winning, Bastia a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Angers and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Angers vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Angers's attack rating (0.90) and Bastia's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.96x) against Angers's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 6 games and Bastia's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
37%
2.68
32%
3.14
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Angers xG
Total xG
2.04
0.96
Bastia xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Angers and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Angers and 0.96 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Angers come into this having played 44 games, going 6W 8D 30L for 0.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.55 PPG from 44 outings (19W 11D 14L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Bastia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Angers's home form reads 4W 5D 13L across their last 22 home games, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.14 points per game from their last 22 away games (6W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Angers are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.34 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
Angers (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Early Season
Bastia
Early Season
❓ Angers vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Bastia in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 6W 8D 30L in their last 44 games (0.59 PPG), while Bastia have gone 19W 11D 14L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Bastia away?
Bastia's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 0.77 PPG; Bastia away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Angers or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Angers
0
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Bastia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 1, Bastia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 January 2024: Bastia 2-0 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 73%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Angers) and 46% (Bastia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bastia in 32%; Bastia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Bastia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Angers's games and 50% of Bastia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Angers and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Angers's matches and 46% of Bastia's.
Do Angers and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Angers's recent matches and 64% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.08 xG and Bastia 0.96 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Angers beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Bastia attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 37% | Draw 32% | Bastia 31%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 64%, Bastia 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bastia arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.59. Form was overturned, with Angers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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