Laval 2-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 52% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Laval vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Laval welcome Annecy to Stade Francis Le Basser in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). Kick-off is Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Laval stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Laval's home record over their last 10 home games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 0.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Annecy have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Annecy's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Annecy are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Laval have won 2, Annecy 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Laval 0–0 Annecy — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Laval in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 43% versus Annecy 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Laval 38% | Annecy 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 0.69 xG and Annecy 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.673 / defence 1.138 | Annecy attack 1.011 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Laval's attack rating of 0.673 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from Laval's last 56 games and Annecy's last 56.
Result probabilities: Laval 19% | Draw 28% | Annecy 52%. Fair-value odds: Laval 5.19 | Draw 3.54 | Annecy 1.91. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Laval's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Laval 30% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 19% | Draw 28% | Annecy 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Laval 0.69 / Annecy 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.673 / def 1.138 | Annecy attack 1.011 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Annecy (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Laval xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Annecy xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Laval vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Laval vs Annecy kick off?
Laval vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Annecy?
Laval 2 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Laval vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Annecy part of?
Laval vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 19% chance of winning, Annecy a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Laval and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Laval vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Laval's attack rating (0.67) and Annecy's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Laval's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Laval's last 56 games and Annecy's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
19%
5.19
28%
3.54
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Laval xG
Total xG
2.04
1.35
Annecy xG
5.19
19%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
50%
2.00
Win to Nil
5%
19.95
26%
3.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 17.5 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Laval vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Laval and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Laval and 1.35 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Laval come into this having played 56 games, going 17W 16D 23L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.48 PPG from 56 outings (23W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Laval on 1.20 PPG, Annecy on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Laval's home form reads 8W 6D 13L across their last 27 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 5D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Laval are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.25 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Blended
Annecy
Blended
Laval (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Laval
Blended
Annecy
Blended
❓ Laval vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Laval and Annecy in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 17W 16D 23L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Annecy have gone 23W 14D 19L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.11 PPG; Annecy away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Laval or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Annecy in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Apr 2024, when Annecy won Laval 0-3 Annecy.
Laval's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Laval
3
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Laval vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Annecy?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Laval have won 2, Annecy have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Laval 2-2 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 44%, Annecy 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Laval) and 44% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 33%; Laval have failed to score in 37% of games; Annecy in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Laval vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Laval and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Laval's recent matches and 44% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Laval and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Laval's recent games and 44% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Laval's recent matches and 70% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Laval and Annecy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 23, as Laval and Annecy drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 0.69 xG and Annecy 1.35 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Laval beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.67 / defence 1.14 against Annecy attack 1.01 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 19% | Draw 28% | Annecy 52%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 38%, Annecy 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.20 PPG, Annecy 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Laval (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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