PAU 1-2 Boulogne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Boulogne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Boulogne make the trip to Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's home record at Nouste Camp: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Boulogne (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Boulogne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for PAU against 1.30 for Boulogne. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2025, ended 3–0 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Boulogne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 58% versus Boulogne 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 67% | Boulogne 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.40 xG and Boulogne 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.121 / defence 1.281 | Boulogne attack 0.835 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Data: 56 PAU games / 22 Boulogne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 26% | Boulogne 34%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Boulogne 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 60% | Boulogne 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Boulogne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 40% | Draw 26% | Boulogne 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG PAU 1.40 / Boulogne 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.121 / def 1.281 | Boulogne attack 0.835 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: PAU (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Boulogne xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Boulogne kick off?
PAU vs Boulogne kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Boulogne?
PAU 1 - 2 Boulogne.
Where is PAU vs Boulogne being played?
The match is being played at Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Boulogne part of?
PAU vs Boulogne is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Boulogne?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 40% chance of winning, Boulogne a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Boulogne?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both PAU and Boulogne will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Boulogne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Boulogne?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 0 | Boulogne 0W.
What form are PAU and Boulogne in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Boulogne (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.12x the league average against Boulogne's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Boulogne's attack (0.83x) against PAU's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.84
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
PAU xG
Total xG
2.65
1.25
Boulogne xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
8%
12.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Boulogne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are PAU and Boulogne expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for PAU and 1.25 for Boulogne, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Boulogne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 7D 8L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Boulogne sit at 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Boulogne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for PAU against 1.08 for Boulogne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
PAU's home form reads 4W 3D 5L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Boulogne have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Boulogne are on 1.08 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Boulogne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Boulogne in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 games (1.42 PPG), while Boulogne have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Boulogne away?
Boulogne's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.25 PPG; Boulogne away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
PAU
0
Draws
1
Boulogne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Boulogne?
From 2 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Boulogne have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Boulogne last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when PAU 1-2 Boulogne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Boulogne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 58%, Boulogne 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (PAU) and 33% (Boulogne).
On the defensive side: Boulogne in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Boulogne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Boulogne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Boulogne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Boulogne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of PAU's recent games and 33% of Boulogne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Boulogne tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Boulogne in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Boulogne defy the odds to beat PAU 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Boulogne beat PAU 1-2 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.40 xG and Boulogne 1.25 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.12 / defence 1.28 against Boulogne attack 0.83 / defence 1.08, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 40% | Draw 26% | Boulogne 34%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Boulogne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 67%, Boulogne 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Boulogne's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.42 PPG, Boulogne 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Boulogne win broke the near-deadlock. Boulogne (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.