Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dunkerque at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Dunkerque at Stade de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amiens — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens at Stade de la Licorne this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dunkerque are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Amiens, 3 for Dunkerque and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 2–6 with Dunkerque winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Amiens in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 52% versus Dunkerque 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 55% | Dunkerque 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.17 xG and Dunkerque 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.060 / defence 1.258 | Dunkerque attack 1.103 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 1.171. Data: 56 Amiens games / 56 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 27% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 48%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Dunkerque 2.08. Dunkerque hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dunkerque at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 50% | Dunkerque 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 27% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Amiens 1.17 / Dunkerque 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.060 / def 1.258 | Dunkerque attack 1.103 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.153 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Dunkerque xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Dunkerque kick off?
Amiens vs Dunkerque kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Stade de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Amiens 1 - 4 Dunkerque.
Where is Amiens vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Dunkerque part of?
Amiens vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 27% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Amiens and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dunkerque?
Record (7 meetings): Amiens 3W | Draws 1 | Dunkerque 3W.
What form are Amiens and Dunkerque in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Amiens's attack rating (1.06) and Dunkerque's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dunkerque's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
27%
3.64
25%
4.07
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.79
1.62
Dunkerque xG
3.64
27%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
5%
18.50
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Amiens and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Amiens and 1.62 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Dunkerque?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens's recent record stands at 19W 8D 29L from 56 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dunkerque, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 17L across 56 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dunkerque by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Amiens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Amiens have managed 12W 5D 10L from 27 games — 1.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dunkerque's away record stands at 9W 7D 11L across 27 trips, a 1.26 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.45 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 8D 29L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 27W 12D 17L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Dunkerque away?
Amiens's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.52 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Amiens or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Dunkerque runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dunkerque go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Dunkerque won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Dunkerque specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Amiens
1
Draws
4
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Dunkerque?
From 8 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Dunkerque have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Amiens 1-4 Dunkerque.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Dunkerque?
Dunkerque have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 56%, Dunkerque 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Amiens) and 37% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Amiens have failed to score in 26% of games; Dunkerque in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Amiens's recent matches and 52% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Amiens's recent games and 37% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dunkerque run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque beat Amiens 1-4 at Stade de la Licorne, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.17 xG and Dunkerque 1.62 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Dunkerque outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.06 / defence 1.26 against Dunkerque attack 1.10 / defence 0.96, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 27% | Draw 25% | Dunkerque 48%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 55%, Dunkerque 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Dunkerque's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dunkerque arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.