Bordeaux 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bordeaux at 49%, yet in-form Angers provide a compelling counter-argument — this Bordeaux vs Angers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bordeaux welcome Angers to Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 2 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bordeaux at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Angers stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Angers have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Angers's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Bordeaux's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Bordeaux have won 0, Angers 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Bordeaux 0–2 Angers — a Angers win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bordeaux trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Angers trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 41% versus Angers 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 43% | Angers 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.75 xG and Angers 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.111 / defence 0.982 | Angers attack 1.148 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.117. Angers's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bordeaux's projected output up. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 58 games and Angers's last 21.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 49% | Draw 24% | Angers 27%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.06 | Draw 4.16 | Angers 3.65. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bordeaux as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Angers (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.01 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bordeaux's last 10 home games and Angers's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 50% (last 10 home games) | Angers 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Monday 29 January 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 49% | Draw 24% | Angers 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Bordeaux 1.75 / Angers 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.111 / def 0.982 | Angers attack 1.148 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Angers xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Angers FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Angers kick off?
Bordeaux vs Angers kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Monday 29 January 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Angers?
Bordeaux 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Bordeaux vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Angers part of?
Bordeaux vs Angers is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 49% chance of winning, Angers a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bordeaux and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bordeaux vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bordeaux's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, Angers's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 58 games and Angers's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
49%
2.06
24%
4.16
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
3.01
1.26
Angers xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
5%
20.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Bordeaux and 1.26 for Angers, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Angers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bordeaux come into this having played 58 games, going 27W 14D 17L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.03 PPG from 58 outings (17W 9D 32L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Bordeaux carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bordeaux's home form reads 16W 7D 5L across their last 28 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.68 points per game from their last 28 away games (5W 4D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 1.19 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Blended
Angers
Blended
Bordeaux (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Bordeaux vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Angers in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 27W 14D 17L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while Angers have gone 17W 9D 32L in their last 58 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Angers away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.96 PPG; Angers away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Angers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Angers in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 May 2022, when Angers won Angers 4-1 Bordeaux.
Bordeaux's record when hosting Angers specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
1
Draws
2
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Angers?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 1, Angers have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 January 2024: Bordeaux 1-0 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Angers?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 43%, Angers 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bordeaux) and 54% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Angers in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 43% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bordeaux's recent games and 54% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 82% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bordeaux edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Angers 1-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.75 xG and Angers 1.26 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Angers landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.11 / defence 0.98 against Angers attack 1.15 / defence 1.29, drawn from 58/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 49% | Draw 24% | Angers 27%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 43%, Angers 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Angers's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Angers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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