Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Clermont Foot encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rennes welcome Clermont Foot to Roazhon Park in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rennes stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rennes's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Clermont Foot — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Rennes carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Rennes's games and 60% of Clermont Foot's (from Rennes's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Rennes, 2 for Clermont Foot and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.6 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2023, ended Rennes 3–1 Clermont Foot — a Rennes win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.6 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rennes trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 58% versus Clermont Foot 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 59% | Clermont Foot 48%). Note also that Clermont Foot surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Rennes recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 2.02 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.195 / defence 1.024 | Clermont Foot attack 0.934 / defence 1.238. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.114. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 1.238 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Rennes's projected output up. Data: built from Rennes's last 59 games and Clermont Foot's last 59.
Result probabilities: Rennes 58% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 18%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 1.73 | Draw 4.05 | Clermont Foot 5.68. The model has a clear lean to Rennes (58%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 80% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 58% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Rennes 2.02 / Clermont Foot 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.195 / def 1.024 | Clermont Foot attack 0.934 / def 1.238 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Rennes (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Rennes vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Rennes 3 - 1 Clermont Foot.
Where is Rennes vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Clermont Foot part of?
Rennes vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 58% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rennes and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.20) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 59 games and Clermont Foot's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
58%
1.73
25%
4.05
18%
5.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Rennes xG
Total xG
3.09
1.06
Clermont Foot xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.68
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
2%
42.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Rennes and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Rennes and 1.06 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Clermont Foot?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rennes's recent record stands at 29W 12D 18L from 59 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 24L across 59 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rennes by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 20W 3D 6L from their last 29 home games — 2.17 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 8D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Rennes are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.02 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 29W 12D 18L in their last 59 games (1.68 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Clermont Foot away?
Rennes's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.17 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Rennes or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Rennes have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Sep 2021, when Rennes won Rennes 6-0 Clermont Foot.
Rennes's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Rennes
0
Draws
2
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: Rennes 3-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Clermont Foot?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 55%, Clermont Foot 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Rennes and 55% for Clermont Foot. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Clermont Foot in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Clermont Foot matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Rennes's games and 62% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Rennes's matches and 55% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Rennes and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Rennes's recent matches and 76% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Clermont Foot 3-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 2.02 xG and Clermont Foot 1.06 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against Clermont Foot attack 0.93 / defence 1.24, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 58% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 18%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 59%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Rennes arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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