Lyon 1-0 Nice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lyon at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lyon face Nice.

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Analysis

Nice make the trip to Groupama Stadium to face Lyon in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Friday 16 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form

Lyon (all games): 5W 0D 5L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Lyon have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Nice's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Nice have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Lyon against 1.40 for Nice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Lyon, 1 for Nice and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Aug 2023, ended Lyon 0–0 Nice — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Lyon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 61% versus Nice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 59% | Nice 32%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.18 xG and Nice 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.004 / defence 1.156 | Nice attack 0.760 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.107. Nice's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Lyon's last 59 games and Nice's last 59.

Result probabilities: Lyon 38% | Draw 35% | Nice 28%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.64 | Draw 2.89 | Nice 3.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lyon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lyon 50% (last 10 home games) | Nice 30% (last 10 away games).

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