Nantes 0-2 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Nantes face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nantes and Paris Saint Germain meet at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Nantes's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Nantes have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris Saint Germain's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Paris Saint Germain arrive in superior form — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Paris Saint Germain, who have 4 wins from 5 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Nantes 1–2 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Nantes — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Paris Saint Germain — key trading statistics (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 48% versus Paris Saint Germain 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 48% | Paris Saint Germain 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 0.76 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.787 / defence 1.102 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.460 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.091. Nantes's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.76. Paris Saint Germain bring a tight defence (rating 0.696, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Nantes's projected output down. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.460, which lifts their away xG to 1.76. Data: built from Nantes's last 59 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 59.
Result probabilities: Nantes 14% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 59%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 7.25 | Draw 3.72 | Paris Saint Germain 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (59%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris Saint Germain are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nantes 40% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 14% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Nantes 0.76 / Paris Saint Germain 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.787 / def 1.102 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.460 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Paris Saint Germain xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Nantes 0 - 2 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 14% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 59% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nantes and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nantes's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Paris Saint Germain's defensive record (0.70x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.76. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.46x) against Nantes's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from Nantes's last 59 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (12.5%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
14%
7.25
27%
3.72
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.51
1.76
Paris Saint Germain xG
7.25
14%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
17%
5.79
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
2%
41.95
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Nantes and 1.76 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Nantes have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 13W 19D 27L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 42W 9D 8L from 59 games, 2.29 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nantes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nantes have posted 1.17 PPG from their last 29 home games (8W 10D 11L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 21W 5D 3L from their last 29 away games — 2.34 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nantes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.37 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Nantes (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantes
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 13W 19D 27L in their last 59 games (0.98 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 42W 9D 8L in their last 59 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 1.17 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.34 PPG.
Have Nantes or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nantes have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 22 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won Nantes 0-3 Paris Saint Germain on 3 Sep 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Nantes
2
Draws
7
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantes have won 1, Paris Saint Germain have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 April 2026: Paris Saint Germain 3-0 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 66% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 41%, Paris Saint Germain 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Nantes) and 66% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 41%; Nantes have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantes vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantes and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Nantes's recent matches and 55% of Paris Saint Germain's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nantes and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Nantes's matches and 66% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Nantes and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Nantes's recent matches and 76% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris Saint Germain cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris Saint Germain beat Nantes 0-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 0.76 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.76 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.46 / defence 0.70, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 14% | Draw 27% | Paris Saint Germain 59%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 48%, Paris Saint Germain 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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