Lille 1-0 Angers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Angers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy plays host to Lille versus Angers in Ligue 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off: Sunday 2 November 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Current Form
Lille's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Lille have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lille are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Angers have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Angers away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Lille's favour (1.70 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Lille, 1 for Angers and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Apr 2025, ended Lille 2–0 Angers — a Lille win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Lille — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Angers — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 57% versus Angers 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lille 50% | Angers 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.93 xG and Angers 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.094 / defence 0.825 | Angers attack 0.829 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.727 / away 1.244. Data: built from Lille's last 44 games and Angers's last 44.
Result probabilities: Lille 63% | Draw 21% | Angers 16%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.59 | Draw 4.68 | Angers 6.31. The model has a clear lean to Lille (63%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 60% (last 10 home games) | Angers 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Angers | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 2 November 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 63% | Draw 21% | Angers 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lille 1.93 / Angers 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.094 / def 0.825 | Angers attack 0.829 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.727 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Lille (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Angers xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Angers FAQs
What time does Lille vs Angers kick off?
Lille vs Angers kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Angers?
Lille 1 - 0 Angers.
Where is Lille vs Angers being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Angers part of?
Lille vs Angers is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Angers?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 63% chance of winning, Angers a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Angers?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lille and Angers will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lille vs Angers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lille's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Angers's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Angers's attack (0.83x) against Lille's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 44 games and Angers's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.68
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Lille xG
Total xG
2.78
0.85
Angers xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
14%
6.90
Win to Nil
27%
3.73
2%
43.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Angers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Angers?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lille and Angers expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Lille and 0.85 for Angers, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Angers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lille come into this having played 44 games, going 22W 11D 11L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Angers sit at 1.05 PPG from 44 outings (12W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lille's home form reads 14W 5D 3L across their last 22 home games, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Angers have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 22 away games (5W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lille are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Angers are on 0.91 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Angers
Blended
Lille (Home) vs Angers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Blended
Angers
Blended
❓ Lille vs Angers Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Angers in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 22W 11D 11L in their last 44 games (1.75 PPG), while Angers have gone 12W 10D 22L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Angers away?
Lille's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.14 PPG; Angers away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Lille and Angers, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Lille have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lille have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Angers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Lille
2
Draws
1
Angers
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Angers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Angers?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 6, Angers have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Angers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Angers 0-2 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Angers?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Angers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 73%, Angers 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Lille) and 23% (Angers).
On the defensive side: Angers in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Angers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Angers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Angers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Lille's recent matches and 36% of Angers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lille and Angers matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Lille's recent games and 23% of Angers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Angers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Lille's recent matches and 59% of Angers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lille edge out Angers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Angers 1-0 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.93 xG and Angers 0.85 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lille fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Angers landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.09 / defence 0.82 against Angers attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 63% | Draw 21% | Angers 16%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 50%, Angers 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Angers's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.05. That form edge translated into the three points. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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