Angers 2-0 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Angers face Auxerre.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Angers welcome Auxerre to Stade Raymond-Kopa in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 9 November 2025 at 16:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Angers — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Angers at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Angers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Auxerre stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Angers) versus 0.40 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Angers have won 1, Auxerre 2, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Jan 2025, ended Angers 2–0 Auxerre — a Angers win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Angers trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Auxerre trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 38% versus Auxerre 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 29% | Auxerre 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.40 xG and Auxerre 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.753 / defence 0.931 | Auxerre attack 0.863 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.204. Angers's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.40. Data: built from Angers's last 45 games and Auxerre's last 45.
Result probabilities: Angers 47% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 26%. Fair-value odds: Angers 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Auxerre 3.85. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Angers as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 30% (last 10 home games) | Auxerre 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 47% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Angers 1.40 / Auxerre 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.753 / def 0.931 | Auxerre attack 0.863 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Angers (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Auxerre xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Auxerre FAQs
What time does Angers vs Auxerre kick off?
Angers vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Angers 2 - 0 Auxerre.
Where is Angers vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Auxerre part of?
Angers vs Auxerre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 47% chance of winning, Auxerre a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Angers and Auxerre will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Angers vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Angers's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 45 games and Auxerre's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
47%
2.13
27%
3.70
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Angers xG
Total xG
2.37
0.97
Auxerre xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
15.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Auxerre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Angers and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Angers and 0.97 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Angers come into this having played 45 games, going 12W 10D 23L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 1.09 PPG from 45 outings (13W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.02 PPG, Auxerre on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Angers's home form reads 7W 4D 11L across their last 22 home games, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 22 away games (4W 4D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Angers are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.22 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
Angers (Home) vs Auxerre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Angers vs Auxerre Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 12W 10D 23L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 13W 10D 22L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Auxerre away?
Angers's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.14 PPG; Auxerre away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Angers's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Angers
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Auxerre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Auxerre?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 3, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Auxerre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Auxerre 1-3 Angers.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 41%, Auxerre 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Angers) and 64% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Angers have failed to score in 36% of games; Auxerre in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Auxerre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Auxerre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Angers's recent matches and 59% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Angers and Auxerre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Angers's recent games and 64% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Auxerre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Angers's recent matches and 91% of Auxerre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Auxerre 2-0 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 12, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.40 xG and Auxerre 0.97 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Auxerre landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.75 / defence 0.93 against Auxerre attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 47% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 26%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 29%, Auxerre 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Auxerre's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.02 PPG, Auxerre 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock. Angers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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