Auxerre 0-1 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Marseille at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Marseille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Marseille at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1 (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 1 November 2025 at 20:05 UK time.
Form Guide
Auxerre — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Auxerre have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Marseille have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Marseille have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Marseille — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Auxerre, 2 for Marseille and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Feb 2025, ended Auxerre 3–0 Marseille — a Auxerre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Marseille trading profile (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 52% versus Marseille 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 59% | Marseille 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.98 xG and Marseille 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.692 / defence 0.972 | Marseille attack 1.117 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.254. Auxerre's attack rating of 0.692 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Auxerre's last 44 games and Marseille's last 44.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 27% | Draw 27% | Marseille 46%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.71 | Draw 3.65 | Marseille 2.19. Marseille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Marseille as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Marseille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Auxerre 50% (last 10 home games) | Marseille 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 11 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 20:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 27% | Draw 27% | Marseille 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Auxerre 0.98 / Marseille 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.692 / def 0.972 | Marseille attack 1.117 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Marseille (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Marseille xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Marseille FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Marseille kick off?
Auxerre vs Marseille kicked off at 20:05 UK time on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Marseille?
Auxerre 0 - 1 Marseille.
Where is Auxerre vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Marseille part of?
Auxerre vs Marseille is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 11) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 27% chance of winning, Marseille a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Auxerre and Marseille will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Auxerre vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.69) and Marseille's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 44 games and Marseille's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
27%
3.71
27%
3.65
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.34
1.36
Marseille xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
7%
14.49
17%
5.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.1 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Marseille Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.36 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Auxerre have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 13W 10D 21L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Marseille's form line: 26W 6D 12L from 44 games, 1.91 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Marseille are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 22 home games (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Marseille have gone 12W 1D 9L from their last 22 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 2.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Marseille in 64%.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Marseille
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Marseille (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Marseille Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Marseille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Marseille have gone 26W 6D 12L in their last 44 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.50 PPG; Marseille away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 13 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Marseille have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Feb 2025, when Auxerre won Auxerre 3-0 Marseille.
Auxerre's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
4
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Marseille H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Marseille?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, Marseille have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Marseille last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 March 2026: Marseille 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Marseille see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 46%, Marseille 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Auxerre and 68% for Marseille. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Marseille in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Marseille Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Marseille matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Auxerre's recent matches and 54% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Marseille matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Auxerre's matches and 68% of Marseille's.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Auxerre 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Auxerre 0-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.98 xG and Marseille 1.36 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Auxerre fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.69 / defence 0.97 against Marseille attack 1.12 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 27% | Draw 27% | Marseille 46%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 59%, Marseille 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Marseille's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Marseille (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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