SJK 3-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SJK face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
SJK (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SJK have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SJK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mariehamn's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SJK against 0.90 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from SJK's last 10 home games and Mariehamn's last 10 away games) — SJK have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mariehamn in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for SJK, 1 for Mariehamn and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Jun 2023, ended SJK 2–0 Mariehamn — a SJK win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SJK — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 49% versus Mariehamn 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 45% | Mariehamn 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.39 xG and Mariehamn 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.041 / defence 1.138 | Mariehamn attack 1.010 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.236. Data: built from SJK's last 42 games and Mariehamn's last 42.
Result probabilities: SJK 36% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 37%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.79 | Draw 3.72 | Mariehamn 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mariehamn as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SJK 60% (last 10 home games) | Mariehamn 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 21 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 36% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG SJK 1.39 / Mariehamn 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.041 / def 1.138 | Mariehamn attack 1.010 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Mariehamn xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn FAQs
What time does SJK vs Mariehamn kick off?
SJK vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
SJK 3 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is SJK vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Mariehamn part of?
SJK vs Mariehamn is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 21) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 36% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SJK and Mariehamn will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SJK vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 1.04x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (1.01x) against SJK's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 42 games and Mariehamn's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.72
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SJK xG
Total xG
2.81
1.42
Mariehamn xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.55
9%
10.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SJK and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SJK and 1.42 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, SJK have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 19W 10D 18L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Mariehamn's form line: 12W 13D 22L from 47 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for SJK against 1.04 for Mariehamn. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SJK have posted 1.78 PPG from their last 23 home games (12W 5D 6L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 6W 5D 12L from their last 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.26 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
SJK (Home) vs Mariehamn (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn Form FAQs
What form are SJK and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 19W 10D 18L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 12W 13D 22L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Mariehamn away?
SJK's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.78 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SJK and Mariehamn, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SJK won Mariehamn 0-4 SJK on 21 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
SJK
0
Draws
3
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Mariehamn?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 7, Mariehamn have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Mariehamn last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: SJK 2-1 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Mariehamn?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 61%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SJK) and 48% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: SJK keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Mariehamn in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs Mariehamn Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and Mariehamn matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SJK's games and 61% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SJK and Mariehamn matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of SJK's recent games and 48% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SJK and Mariehamn matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of SJK's recent matches and 74% of Mariehamn's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SJK defy the odds to beat Mariehamn 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Mariehamn 3-2 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.39 xG and Mariehamn 1.42 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SJK beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.04 / defence 1.14 against Mariehamn attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 36% | Draw 27% | Mariehamn 37%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SJK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 45%, Mariehamn 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.43 PPG, Mariehamn 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.