Fulham 1-1 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fulham face Crystal Palace.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fulham's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fulham at home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Fulham, 0 for Crystal Palace and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Fulham 0–0 Crystal Palace — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus Crystal Palace 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 65% | Crystal Palace 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.65 xG and Crystal Palace 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.980 / defence 0.846 | Crystal Palace attack 0.736 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.765 / away 1.524. Crystal Palace's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Fulham's last 72 games and Crystal Palace's last 72.
Result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 21%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 1.88 | Draw 3.89 | Crystal Palace 4.73. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fulham 40% (last 10 home games) | Crystal Palace 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, matchday 35 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Fulham 1.65 / Crystal Palace 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.980 / def 0.846 | Crystal Palace attack 0.736 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.765 / away 1.524 • Poisson stance: Fulham (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Crystal Palace xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fulham vs Crystal Palace FAQs
What time does Fulham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Fulham 1 - 1 Crystal Palace.
Where is Fulham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Crystal Palace part of?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace is a Premier League fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 53% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Fulham and Crystal Palace will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Fulham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.74x) against Fulham's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Fulham's last 72 games and Crystal Palace's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.89
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.60
0.95
Crystal Palace xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
4%
24.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fulham vs Crystal Palace Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fulham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Fulham and 0.95 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham's recent record stands at 27W 13D 32L from 72 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 30L across 72 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Fulham against 1.17 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 17W 6D 13L from their last 36 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 8W 10D 18L across their last 36 away games, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fulham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.17 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
Fulham (Home) vs Crystal Palace (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fulham
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
❓ Fulham vs Crystal Palace Form FAQs
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 27W 13D 32L in their last 72 games (1.31 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 21W 21D 30L in their last 72 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Crystal Palace away?
Fulham's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.58 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Fulham and Crystal Palace, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won Crystal Palace 0-3 Fulham on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Fulham
4
Draws
3
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Fulham vs Crystal Palace H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Fulham have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Fulham 2-3 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 53%, Crystal Palace 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Fulham) and 42% (Crystal Palace). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham have failed to score in 28% of games; Crystal Palace in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fulham vs Crystal Palace Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fulham and Crystal Palace matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Fulham's recent matches and 50% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fulham and Crystal Palace matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Fulham's matches and 42% of Crystal Palace's.
Do Fulham and Crystal Palace matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Fulham's recent matches and 67% of Crystal Palace's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and Crystal Palace finished level at 1-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.65 xG and Crystal Palace 0.95 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 0.85 against Crystal Palace attack 0.74 / defence 0.95, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 53% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 21%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 65%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.31 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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