Everton 1-0 Brentford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Brentford in Premier League, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Everton have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Goodison Park. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Everton are significantly better at Goodison Park than their overall form suggests.
Brentford (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brentford's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Everton, 1.00 for Brentford — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Everton, 2 for Brentford and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 3–1 with Everton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Brentford — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 43% versus Brentford 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 43% | Brentford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.56 xG and Brentford 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.839 / defence 0.719 | Brentford attack 1.132 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.519. Everton's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Everton games / 72 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 44% | Draw 27% | Brentford 29%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Brentford 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Everton 40% | Brentford 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 44% | Draw 27% | Brentford 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Everton 1.56 / Brentford 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.839 / def 0.719 | Brentford attack 1.132 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Everton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Brentford xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Brentford kick off?
Everton vs Brentford kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Brentford?
Everton 1 - 0 Brentford.
Where is Everton vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Brentford part of?
Everton vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 44% chance of winning, Brentford a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Everton and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
Record (5 meetings): Everton 2W | Draws 1 | Brentford 2W.
What form are Everton and Brentford in?
Everton (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Brentford (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Everton's attack rating (0.84) and Brentford's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brentford's attack (1.13x) against Everton's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.73
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Everton xG
Total xG
2.80
1.24
Brentford xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.83
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Everton and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Everton and 1.24 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton's recent record stands at 19W 20D 33L from 72 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
Brentford, meanwhile, have gone 24W 22D 26L across 72 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Everton against 1.31 for Brentford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton have managed 12W 7D 17L from 36 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brentford's away record stands at 9W 9D 18L across 36 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.53 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Current Season
Brentford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Brentford in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 19W 20D 33L in their last 72 games (1.07 PPG), while Brentford have gone 24W 22D 26L in their last 72 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Brentford away?
Everton's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.19 PPG; Brentford away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Brentford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Everton
4
Draws
3
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Brentford?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 3, Brentford have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Brentford 2-2 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 39%, Brentford 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Everton) and 53% (Brentford).
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 28% of games; Brentford in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Everton's recent matches and 53% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Everton's recent games and 53% of Brentford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Brentford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Brentford 1-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.56 xG and Brentford 1.24 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Brentford landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.84 / defence 0.72 against Brentford attack 1.13 / defence 1.05, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 44% | Draw 27% | Brentford 29%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 43%, Brentford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Brentford's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.07 PPG, Brentford 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Brentford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.