Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bournemouth at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Brighton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Brighton make the trip to Vitality Stadium to face Bournemouth in Premier League (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Bournemouth have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Brighton have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Brighton have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bournemouth's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Brighton's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Brighton have the stronger record — 3 wins to Bournemouth's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Bournemouth 1–3 Brighton — a Brighton win.
Brighton have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Bournemouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Brighton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 49% versus Brighton 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 58% | Brighton 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.55 xG and Brighton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.911 / defence 1.051 | Brighton attack 0.803 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.515. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 72 games and Brighton's last 71.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 43% | Draw 26% | Brighton 31%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.33 | Draw 3.79 | Brighton 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Brighton have the better head-to-head record in our data (3 wins to 0), but Bournemouth carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bournemouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bournemouth's last 10 home games and Brighton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Brighton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Brighton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 35 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 43% | Draw 26% | Brighton 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Bournemouth 1.55 / Brighton 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.911 / def 1.051 | Brighton attack 0.803 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Brighton xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Brighton FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Brighton kick off?
Bournemouth vs Brighton kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Bournemouth 3 - 0 Brighton.
Where is Bournemouth vs Brighton being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Brighton part of?
Bournemouth vs Brighton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 43% chance of winning, Brighton a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bournemouth and Brighton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bournemouth vs Brighton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bournemouth's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Brighton's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Brighton's attack (0.80x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 72 games and Brighton's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.79
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.83
1.28
Brighton xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Brighton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Brighton expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.28 for Brighton, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Brighton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 22W 15D 34L from 71 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Brighton, meanwhile, have gone 29W 19D 23L across 71 games — 1.49 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.49 for Brighton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 11W 10D 14L from their last 35 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brighton's away record stands at 11W 9D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bournemouth are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Brighton are on 1.75 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brighton in 65%.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Brighton
Current Season
Bournemouth (Home) vs Brighton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Current Season
Brighton
Current Season
❓ Bournemouth vs Brighton Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Brighton in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 22W 15D 34L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Brighton have gone 29W 19D 23L in their last 71 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Brighton away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.23 PPG; Brighton away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 19 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won Bournemouth 3-0 Brighton on 28 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 2W 0D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Brighton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
1
Draws
5
Brighton
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Brighton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Brighton?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 2, Brighton have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Brighton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 January 2026: Brighton 1-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Brighton?
Brighton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Brighton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 49%, Brighton 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Bournemouth and 71% for Brighton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Brighton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Brighton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Brighton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Bournemouth's games and 71% of Brighton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bournemouth and Brighton matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Bournemouth's matches and 71% of Brighton's.
Do Bournemouth and Brighton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 80% of Brighton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Brighton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Brighton 3-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.55 xG and Brighton 1.28 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brighton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Brighton attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 72/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 43% | Draw 26% | Brighton 31%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 58%, Brighton 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Brighton's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.14 PPG, Brighton 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Brighton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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