Gillingham 0-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gillingham vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Stockport County travel to Priestfield Stadium to take on Gillingham. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 20 February 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gillingham stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stockport County's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Gillingham) versus 1.50 (Stockport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Gillingham, 0 for Stockport County and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Gillingham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gillingham trading profile (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Stockport County trading profile (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gillingham 36% versus Stockport County 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gillingham 30% | Stockport County 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gillingham 1.17 xG and Stockport County 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gillingham attack 0.759 / defence 0.976 | Stockport County attack 1.282 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.330. Gillingham's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 78 Gillingham games / 78 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 48%. Fair-value odds: Gillingham 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Stockport County 2.08. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gillingham 50% | Stockport County 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gillingham vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Priestfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gillingham 26% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Gillingham 1.17 / Stockport County 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Gillingham attack 0.759 / def 0.976 | Stockport County attack 1.282 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Gillingham xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Stockport County xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gillingham vs Stockport County kick off?
Gillingham vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 20 February 2024 at Priestfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Gillingham 0 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is Gillingham vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Priestfield Stadium.
What competition is Gillingham vs Stockport County part of?
Gillingham vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Gillingham a 26% chance of winning, Stockport County a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gillingham and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Gillingham vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Stockport County?
Record (3 meetings): Gillingham 1W | Draws 2 | Stockport County 0W.
What form are Gillingham and Stockport County in?
Gillingham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Stockport County (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gillingham's attack at 0.76x the league average against Stockport County's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Gillingham's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
26%
3.84
26%
3.90
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Gillingham xG
Total xG
2.83
1.67
Stockport County xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
5%
20.28
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Gillingham and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Gillingham and 1.67 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Gillingham vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gillingham's recent record stands at 28W 18D 32L from 78 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Stockport County, meanwhile, have gone 40W 21D 17L across 78 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stockport County by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gillingham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Gillingham have managed 18W 9D 12L from 39 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stockport County's away record stands at 19W 8D 12L across 39 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Gillingham are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.67 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gillingham
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gillingham and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Gillingham have gone 28W 18D 32L in their last 78 games (1.31 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 40W 21D 17L in their last 78 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gillingham at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gillingham at home: 1.62 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Gillingham or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gillingham have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stockport County in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gillingham's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Gillingham
3
Draws
0
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gillingham and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Gillingham have won 1, Stockport County have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gillingham and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when Gillingham 0-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Gillingham and Stockport County?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gillingham 38%, Stockport County 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Gillingham) and 56% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Gillingham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gillingham have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gillingham home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gillingham play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Gillingham's recent matches and 59% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gillingham vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Gillingham's recent games and 56% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gillingham and Stockport County tend to score early?
Gillingham have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gillingham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Priestfield Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Gillingham and Stockport County drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gillingham 1.17 xG and Stockport County 1.67 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gillingham fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Stockport County landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gillingham attack 0.76 / defence 0.98 against Stockport County attack 1.28 / defence 1.04, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gillingham 26% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 48%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gillingham 30%, Stockport County 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gillingham's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gillingham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.