Stockport County 0-0 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stockport County at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 35 as Stockport County welcome Swindon Town to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Stockport County's home record at Edgeley Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Swindon Town — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Swindon Town's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Stockport County) versus 0.90 (Swindon Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stockport County, 0 for Swindon Town and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 4–2 with Stockport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 51% versus Swindon Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | Swindon Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.49 xG and Swindon Town 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.214 / defence 0.873 | Swindon Town attack 1.049 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.316. Swindon Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 79 Stockport County games / 79 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 65% | Draw 19% | Swindon Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Swindon Town 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 50% | Swindon Town 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 65% | Draw 19% | Swindon Town 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 65% | xG Stockport County 2.49 / Swindon Town 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.214 / def 0.873 | Swindon Town attack 1.049 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Swindon Town xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Swindon Town kick off?
Stockport County vs Swindon Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 24 February 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Stockport County 0 - 0 Swindon Town.
Where is Stockport County vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Swindon Town part of?
Stockport County vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 65% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Stockport County and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Swindon Town?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 1 | Swindon Town 0W.
What form are Stockport County and Swindon Town in?
Stockport County (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Swindon Town (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 1.21x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.4%), 3-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
65%
1.54
19%
5.33
16%
6.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.7%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.70
1.21
Swindon Town xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
6.14
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
8%
12.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
1%
74.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.21 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 79 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 40W 22D 17L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Swindon Town's form line: 26W 22D 31L from 79 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Swindon Town.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.95 PPG from 39 outings (21W 13D 5L).
On the road, Swindon Town have gone 9W 13D 17L from 39 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.49 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 40W 22D 17L in their last 79 games (1.80 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 26W 22D 31L in their last 79 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Swindon Town away?
Stockport County's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.95 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Swindon Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Swindon Town in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Swindon Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Swindon Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Stockport County 0-0 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Swindon Town?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 44%, Swindon Town 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stockport County) and 62% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Stockport County's games and 72% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stockport County's recent games and 62% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Stockport County's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Swindon Town finished level at 0-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.49 xG and Swindon Town 1.21 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Stockport County fell 2.5 short of their projected output. Swindon Town landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.21 / defence 0.87 against Swindon Town attack 1.05 / defence 1.40, drawn from 79/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 65% | Draw 19% | Swindon Town 16%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 46%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Swindon Town's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward. Swindon Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.