Stockport County 0-0 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Stockport County at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Swindon Town.

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Fixture Analysis

Stockport County welcome Swindon Town to Edgeley Park in League Two (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Stockport County have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Stockport County's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Swindon Town — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Swindon Town's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Stockport County) versus 0.90 (Swindon Town). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Stockport County have won 2, Swindon Town 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Stockport County 4–2 Swindon Town — a Stockport County win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 36 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

Swindon Town in-play tendencies (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 51% versus Swindon Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 46% | Swindon Town 58%). Note also that Swindon Town surrender HT leads in 39% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.49 xG and Swindon Town 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.214 / defence 0.873 | Swindon Town attack 1.049 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.316. Swindon Town's defence rating of 1.400 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Stockport County's last 79 games and Swindon Town's last 79.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 65% | Draw 19% | Swindon Town 16%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.54 | Draw 5.33 | Swindon Town 6.14. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.49 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Swindon Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 50% (last 10 home games) | Swindon Town 90% (last 10 away games).

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