AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Cherry Red Records Stadium plays host to AFC Wimbledon versus Grimsby in League Two, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 March 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
AFC Wimbledon's overall League Two record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
AFC Wimbledon's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at The Cherry Red Records Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Grimsby (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Grimsby's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for AFC Wimbledon, 0.90 for Grimsby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — AFC Wimbledon lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 0.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
AFC Wimbledon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Grimsby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (79 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 51% versus Grimsby 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 43% | Grimsby 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.39 xG and Grimsby 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.063 / defence 0.861 | Grimsby attack 0.883 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.448 / away 1.296. Data: 81 AFC Wimbledon games / 79 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 28% | Grimsby 26%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Grimsby 3.85. AFC Wimbledon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Grimsby 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 28% | Grimsby 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.39 / Grimsby 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.063 / def 0.861 | Grimsby attack 0.883 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.448 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Grimsby xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 March 2024 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 0 Grimsby.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 46% chance of winning, Grimsby a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby?
Record (3 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 1W | Draws 1 | Grimsby 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Grimsby (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (1.06) and Grimsby's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grimsby's attack (0.88x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 81/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
46%
2.19
28%
3.57
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.37
0.98
Grimsby xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.98 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 23W 25D 31L from 79 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-W in the last five.
Grimsby, meanwhile, have gone 23W 25D 31L across 79 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for AFC Wimbledon against 1.19 for Grimsby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 14W 10D 14L from 38 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grimsby's away record stands at 10W 11D 17L across 38 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.19 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Grimsby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 23W 25D 31L in their last 79 games (1.19 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 23W 25D 31L in their last 79 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Grimsby away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.37 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.08 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Grimsby been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Grimsby in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Grimsby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
2
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby?
From 6 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, Grimsby have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Grimsby 0-1 AFC Wimbledon.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 53%, Grimsby 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (AFC Wimbledon) and 45% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 26% of games; Grimsby in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Grimsby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 53% of Grimsby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 45% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Grimsby in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at AFC Wimbledon's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as AFC Wimbledon and Grimsby drew 0-0 in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.39 xG and Grimsby 0.98 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Grimsby landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Grimsby attack 0.88 / defence 0.90, drawn from 81/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 46% | Draw 28% | Grimsby 26%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 43%, Grimsby 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grimsby's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.19 PPG, Grimsby 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Grimsby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.