Peterborough 3-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Stevenage meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 38. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 13 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Peterborough have posted 6W 2D 2L at Weston Homes Stadium — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stevenage's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Peterborough, 0 for Stevenage and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 51% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 62% | Stevenage 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.81 xG and Stevenage 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.457 / defence 1.058 | Stevenage attack 0.980 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.227. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.457 — their λ of 1.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 82 Peterborough games / 36 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 50% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 27%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Stevenage 3.70. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Peterborough as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 70% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 50% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG Peterborough 1.81 / Stevenage 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.457 / def 1.058 | Stevenage attack 0.980 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Stevenage xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Stevenage kick off?
Peterborough vs Stevenage kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 13 March 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Peterborough 3 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Peterborough vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Stevenage part of?
Peterborough vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 50% chance of winning, Stevenage a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Peterborough and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.46x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.98x) against Peterborough's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 82/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
50%
2.00
23%
4.31
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Peterborough xG
Total xG
3.09
1.27
Stevenage xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
16%
6.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
4%
22.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.5 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.27 for Stevenage, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Peterborough come into this having played 82 games, going 43W 13D 26L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.78 PPG from 82 outings (41W 23D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Peterborough against 1.78 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Peterborough's home form reads 23W 8D 9L across 40 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.48 points per game from 40 outings (15W 14D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.33 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 43W 13D 26L in their last 82 games (1.73 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 41W 23D 18L in their last 82 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Stevenage away?
Peterborough's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.92 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Stevenage in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stevenage have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Peterborough.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 45%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Peterborough) and 40% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Stevenage in 32%; Stevenage in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Peterborough's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Peterborough's recent games and 40% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Stevenage tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Stevenage 3-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.81 xG and Stevenage 1.27 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.46 / defence 1.06 against Stevenage attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 82/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 50% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 27%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 62%, Stevenage 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (82 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (82 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.73 PPG, Stevenage 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.