Stevenage 0-1 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leyton Orient at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stevenage face Leyton Orient.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Stevenage welcome Leyton Orient to The Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 39). Kick-off is Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stevenage — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Stevenage's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Leyton Orient have recorded 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Leyton Orient's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stevenage at 1.20 PPG versus Leyton Orient's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Stevenage, 0 for Leyton Orient and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Stevenage 3–0 Leyton Orient — a Stevenage win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Leyton Orient in-play and half-time data (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 45% versus Leyton Orient 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 42% | Leyton Orient 35%). Note also that Leyton Orient surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Stevenage recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 0.88 xG and Leyton Orient 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.775 / defence 0.798 | Leyton Orient attack 0.934 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.226. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Stevenage have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling Leyton Orient's projected output down. Data: built from Stevenage's last 37 games and Leyton Orient's last 38.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 33% | Leyton Orient 34%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 3.09 | Draw 3.01 | Leyton Orient 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.88 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leyton Orient are the pick at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stevenage's last 10 home games and Leyton Orient's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 30% (last 10 home games) | Leyton Orient 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League One, matchday 39 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 32% | Draw 33% | Leyton Orient 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% (Under 73%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Stevenage 0.88 / Leyton Orient 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.775 / def 0.798 | Leyton Orient attack 0.934 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Leyton Orient xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Leyton Orient FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Stevenage vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Leyton Orient.
Where is Stevenage vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Leyton Orient part of?
Stevenage vs Leyton Orient is a League One fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 32% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Stevenage and Leyton Orient will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Stevenage vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (73%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Leyton Orient's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Leyton Orient's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 37 games and Leyton Orient's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
32%
3.09
33%
3.01
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.79
0.91
Leyton Orient xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.2 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Leyton Orient Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.91 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage's recent record stands at 41W 23D 19L from 83 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Leyton Orient, meanwhile, have gone 40W 23D 20L across 83 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.76 PPG, Leyton Orient on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 25W 9D 7L from their last 41 home games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leyton Orient's away record stands at 17W 13D 11L across their last 41 away games, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.23 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Leyton Orient in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Leyton Orient (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Current Season
Leyton Orient
Current Season
❓ Stevenage vs Leyton Orient Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 41W 23D 19L in their last 83 games (1.76 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 40W 23D 20L in their last 83 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Leyton Orient away?
Stevenage's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.05 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Leyton Orient have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Jan 2023, when Stevenage won Stevenage 3-0 Leyton Orient.
Stevenage's record when hosting Leyton Orient specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Stevenage
3
Draws
4
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Leyton Orient H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Leyton Orient?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 3, Leyton Orient have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Leyton Orient last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Leyton Orient 1-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Leyton Orient?
Leyton Orient have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 39%, Leyton Orient 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stevenage) and 34% (Leyton Orient).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Leyton Orient in 32%; Leyton Orient in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Leyton Orient Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Leyton Orient matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Stevenage's recent matches and 49% of Leyton Orient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Leyton Orient matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stevenage's recent games and 34% of Leyton Orient's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Leyton Orient matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Stevenage's recent matches and 71% of Leyton Orient's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leyton Orient edge out Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Stevenage 0-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 0.88 xG and Leyton Orient 0.91 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.80 against Leyton Orient attack 0.93 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 32% | Draw 33% | Leyton Orient 34%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Leyton Orient 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.76 PPG, Leyton Orient 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leyton Orient win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.51 scoring average — below par going forward. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.98 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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