Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Portsmouth (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Portsmouth face Burton Albion.

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Match Analysis

Portsmouth host Burton Albion at Fratton Park in League One (matchday 38). Kick-off is Tuesday 12 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Portsmouth — last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Portsmouth at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Burton Albion have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

On current form, Portsmouth have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Portsmouth: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for Burton Albion, with 0 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2023, ended Portsmouth 2–0 Burton Albion — a Portsmouth win.

The head-to-head data gives Portsmouth an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Patterns

Portsmouth in-play and half-time data (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 50% versus Burton Albion 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 45% | Burton Albion 46%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Portsmouth recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.68 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.293 / defence 1.001 | Burton Albion attack 0.749 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.242. Portsmouth carry an above-average attack rating of 1.293 — their 1.68 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.749 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 83 games and Burton Albion's last 82.

Result probabilities: Portsmouth 55% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 21%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.82 | Draw 4.13 | Burton Albion 4.80. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Portsmouth are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Portsmouth's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 40% (last 10 away games).

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