Peterborough 5-0 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Peterborough at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cambridge United make the trip to Weston Homes Stadium to face Peterborough in League One, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Peterborough's overall League One record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough at Weston Homes Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Weston Homes Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cambridge United have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Peterborough. A 1.10 PPG lead over Cambridge United (1.90 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Peterborough 1W, Cambridge United 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–2 with Cambridge United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 45% versus Cambridge United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 55% | Cambridge United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.39 xG and Cambridge United 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.175 / defence 0.939 | Cambridge United attack 0.665 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.155. Data: 62 Peterborough games / 62 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 53% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 19%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Cambridge United 5.26. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 30% | Cambridge United 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 53% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Peterborough 1.39 / Cambridge United 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.175 / def 0.939 | Cambridge United attack 0.665 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Cambridge United xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Cambridge United kick off?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Peterborough 5 - 0 Cambridge United.
Where is Peterborough vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Cambridge United part of?
Peterborough vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 53% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Peterborough and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Record (2 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 0 | Cambridge United 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Cambridge United (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.18) and Cambridge United's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cambridge United's attack (0.67x) against Peterborough's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.51
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.11
0.72
Cambridge United xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
5%
21.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.1 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Peterborough and 0.72 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough's recent record stands at 31W 9D 22L from 62 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 32L across 62 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Peterborough by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cambridge United heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Peterborough have managed 17W 6D 7L from 30 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cambridge United's away record stands at 5W 5D 20L across 30 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Peterborough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.87 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 31W 9D 22L in their last 62 games (1.65 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 18W 12D 32L in their last 62 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Cambridge United away?
Peterborough's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.90 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Peterborough have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won 5-0 on 11 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Peterborough
0
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 5, Cambridge United have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Cambridge United?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 37%, Cambridge United 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 43% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Peterborough have failed to score in 27% of games; Cambridge United in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Peterborough's recent matches and 43% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Peterborough's recent games and 43% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cambridge United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Cambridge United 5-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.39 xG and Cambridge United 0.72 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Cambridge United attack 0.67 / defence 0.91, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 53% | Draw 28% | Cambridge United 19%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 55%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cambridge United's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Cambridge United (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.