Northampton 2-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Cambridge United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Cambridge United travel to Sixfields Stadium to take on Northampton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Northampton have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambridge United stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 League One matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Northampton 1.00 PPG, Cambridge United 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 52% versus Cambridge United 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 45% | Cambridge United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.52 xG and Cambridge United 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.989 / defence 1.099 | Cambridge United attack 0.642 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.127. Data: 16 Northampton games / 63 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 54% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 20%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Cambridge United 5.00. Northampton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Northampton as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 60% | Cambridge United 30% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 54% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Northampton 1.52 / Cambridge United 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.989 / def 1.099 | Cambridge United attack 0.642 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Northampton (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Cambridge United xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Cambridge United kick off?
Northampton vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Northampton 2 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Northampton vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Cambridge United part of?
Northampton vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 54% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Northampton and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Cambridge United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Northampton and Cambridge United in?
Northampton (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Northampton's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.85
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.31
0.80
Cambridge United xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
23.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.9 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Northampton and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Northampton and 0.80 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 28W 16D 18L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United's form line: 17W 12D 33L from 62 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Northampton are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cambridge United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (15W 8D 8L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 5W 5D 21L from 31 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Northampton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.85 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 28W 16D 18L in their last 62 games (1.61 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 17W 12D 33L in their last 62 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Cambridge United away?
Northampton's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.71 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Northampton or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Cambridge United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Northampton's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Northampton
3
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Northampton have won 1, Cambridge United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cambridge United 1-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Cambridge United?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 55%, Cambridge United 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Northampton) and 45% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cambridge United in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Northampton's recent matches and 42% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Northampton's recent games and 45% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Cambridge United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Cambridge United 2-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.52 xG and Cambridge United 0.80 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.99 / defence 1.10 against Cambridge United attack 0.64 / defence 1.14, drawn from 16/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 54% | Draw 26% | Cambridge United 20%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Cambridge United 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cambridge United's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Northampton arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.