Peterborough 4-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Peterborough at 66% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Peterborough face Burton Albion.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Peterborough and Burton Albion meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form

Peterborough (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Peterborough's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Burton Albion have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Burton Albion have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Peterborough against 1.80 for Burton Albion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Peterborough's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) — Peterborough have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Burton Albion in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Peterborough edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Mar 2023, ended Peterborough 5–2 Burton Albion — a Peterborough win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 44% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 56% | Burton Albion 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.99 xG and Burton Albion 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.406 / defence 0.895 | Burton Albion attack 0.769 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.127. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.406 — their 1.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Data: built from Peterborough's last 63 games and Burton Albion's last 63.

Result probabilities: Peterborough 66% | Draw 20% | Burton Albion 14%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.52 | Draw 4.88 | Burton Albion 7.28. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 30% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights