Fleetwood Town 1-3 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fleetwood Town vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Derby travel to Highbury Stadium to take on Fleetwood Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 January 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fleetwood Town stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fleetwood Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood Town have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derby — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Derby — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fleetwood Town, 1 for Derby and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fleetwood Town trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Derby trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fleetwood Town 53% versus Derby 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fleetwood Town 46% | Derby 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fleetwood Town 0.78 xG and Derby 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fleetwood Town attack 0.705 / defence 1.333 | Derby attack 1.351 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.131. Fleetwood Town's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Derby have an above-average attack strength of 1.351 — the away xG of 2.04 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Fleetwood Town games / 70 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 13% | Draw 21% | Derby 66%. Fair-value odds: Fleetwood Town 7.69 | Draw 4.76 | Derby 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Derby (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Fleetwood Town 30% | Derby 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fleetwood Town vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Highbury Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jan 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fleetwood Town 13% | Draw 21% | Derby 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Fleetwood Town 0.78 / Derby 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Fleetwood Town attack 0.705 / def 1.333 | Derby attack 1.351 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Derby (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Fleetwood Town xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Derby xG
47%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fleetwood Town vs Derby kick off?
Fleetwood Town vs Derby kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 January 2024 at Highbury Stadium.
What was the final score in Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Fleetwood Town 1 - 3 Derby.
Where is Fleetwood Town vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Highbury Stadium.
What competition is Fleetwood Town vs Derby part of?
Fleetwood Town vs Derby is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Fleetwood Town a 13% chance of winning, Derby a 66% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fleetwood Town and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Fleetwood Town vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): Fleetwood Town 1W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Fleetwood Town and Derby in?
Fleetwood Town (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Derby (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fleetwood Town's attack rating (0.70) and Derby's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Fleetwood Town's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
13%
7.78
21%
4.80
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Fleetwood Town xG
Total xG
2.81
2.04
Derby xG
7.78
13%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
13%
7.67
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
2%
59.67
30%
3.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 12.2 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Fleetwood Town and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Fleetwood Town and 2.04 for Derby, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Fleetwood Town vs Derby?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fleetwood Town come into this having played 70 games, going 18W 22D 30L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Fleetwood Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Derby sit at 1.74 PPG from 70 outings (35W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fleetwood Town's home form reads 9W 10D 16L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Derby have taken 1.60 points per game from 35 outings (16W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fleetwood Town are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fleetwood Town
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fleetwood Town and Derby in coming into this match?
Fleetwood Town have gone 18W 22D 30L in their last 70 games (1.09 PPG), while Derby have gone 35W 17D 18L in their last 70 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fleetwood Town at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fleetwood Town at home: 1.06 PPG; Derby away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Fleetwood Town or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fleetwood Town have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Derby in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fleetwood Town and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Fleetwood Town's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fleetwood Town
1
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fleetwood Town and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Fleetwood Town have won 1, Derby have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fleetwood Town and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Fleetwood Town 1-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Fleetwood Town and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fleetwood Town 46%, Derby 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Fleetwood Town) and 46% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 34%; Fleetwood Town have failed to score in 34% of games; Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fleetwood Town home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fleetwood Town play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fleetwood Town's recent matches and 49% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fleetwood Town vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Fleetwood Town's recent games and 46% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fleetwood Town and Derby tend to score early?
Fleetwood Town have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Derby in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fleetwood Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Fleetwood Town 1-3 at Highbury Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fleetwood Town 0.78 xG and Derby 2.04 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Derby outscored their 2.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fleetwood Town attack 0.70 / defence 1.33 against Derby attack 1.35 / defence 0.80, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fleetwood Town 13% | Draw 21% | Derby 66%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fleetwood Town 46%, Derby 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.