Derby 3-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Burton Albion at Pride Park Stadium in League One (matchday 28). Kick-off is Monday 15 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Derby have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Burton Albion have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Burton Albion away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Derby are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Derby have won 2, Burton Albion 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Aug 2023, ended Derby 3–0 Burton Albion — a Derby win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 51% versus Burton Albion 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Burton Albion 46%). Note also that Burton Albion surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while Derby recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.83 xG and Burton Albion 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.231 / defence 0.924 | Burton Albion attack 0.635 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.154. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.635 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Derby's last 71 games and Burton Albion's last 72.
Result probabilities: Derby 64% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 13%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.55 | Draw 4.34 | Burton Albion 7.97. The model has a clear lean to Derby (64%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 50% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 28 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 January 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 64% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Derby 1.83 / Burton Albion 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.231 / def 0.924 | Burton Albion attack 0.635 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Derby (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Burton Albion xG
42%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Derby vs Burton Albion kick off?
Derby vs Burton Albion kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 15 January 2024 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Burton Albion?
Derby 3 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Derby vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Burton Albion part of?
Derby vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 28) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 64% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 13% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Derby and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Derby vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derby's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 71 games and Burton Albion's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
64%
1.55
23%
4.34
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Derby xG
Total xG
2.51
0.68
Burton Albion xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
2%
49.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Derby and 0.68 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Burton Albion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derby's recent record stands at 36W 17D 18L from 71 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 31L across 71 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derby by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derby have managed 19W 9D 7L from their last 35 home games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 8W 7D 20L across their last 35 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derby are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.10 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
Derby (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Derby vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 36W 17D 18L in their last 71 games (1.76 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 22W 18D 31L in their last 71 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Burton Albion away?
Derby's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.89 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Derby or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2022. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Derby have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Aug 2023, when Derby won Burton Albion 0-3 Derby.
Derby's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Derby
1
Draws
0
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Burton Albion?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 3, Burton Albion have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derby and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 January 2024: Derby 3-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Burton Albion?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 51%, Burton Albion 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Derby) and 51% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Burton Albion in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Derby's recent matches and 49% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Derby's recent games and 51% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Derby's recent matches and 60% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Burton Albion 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Burton Albion 3-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.83 xG and Burton Albion 0.68 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burton Albion outscored their 0.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.23 / defence 0.92 against Burton Albion attack 0.64 / defence 1.08, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 64% | Draw 23% | Burton Albion 13%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 64%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Derby (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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