Peterborough 5-1 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Northampton travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 5 March 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Peterborough — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Northampton's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Peterborough 1.60 PPG, Northampton 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Northampton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Northampton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Peterborough trading profile (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Northampton trading profile (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 49% versus Northampton 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 62% | Northampton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 2.54 xG and Northampton 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.331 / defence 1.112 | Northampton attack 1.174 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 1.320 / away 1.201. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.331 — their λ of 2.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Northampton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing Peterborough's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 80 Peterborough games / 35 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 59% | Draw 18% | Northampton 23%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.69 | Draw 5.56 | Northampton 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.54 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.10 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 70% | Northampton 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Mar 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 59% | Draw 18% | Northampton 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 73% | xG Peterborough 2.54 / Northampton 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.331 / def 1.112 | Northampton attack 1.174 / def 1.443 | league avg home 1.320 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.54
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Northampton xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Northampton kick off?
Peterborough vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 March 2024 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Northampton?
Peterborough 5 - 1 Northampton.
Where is Peterborough vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Northampton part of?
Peterborough vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 59% chance of winning, Northampton a 23% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Peterborough and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Northampton?
Record (1 meetings): Peterborough 0W | Draws 0 | Northampton 1W.
What form are Peterborough and Northampton in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Northampton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.33) and Northampton's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 2.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
59%
1.70
18%
5.41
23%
4.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.54
Peterborough xG
Total xG
4.10
1.57
Northampton xG
1.70
59%
Home win
5.41
18%
Draw
4.38
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.69
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
8%
12.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
2%
55.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 2.54 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.57 for Northampton, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Northampton?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 81 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 42W 13D 26L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Northampton's form line: 37W 21D 23L from 81 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.72 PPG, Northampton on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.92 PPG from 40 outings (23W 8D 9L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 17W 10D 13L from 40 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.36 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Northampton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 42W 13D 26L in their last 81 games (1.72 PPG), while Northampton have gone 37W 21D 23L in their last 81 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Northampton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.92 PPG; Northampton away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Northampton in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Northampton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 42%, Northampton 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Peterborough) and 50% (Northampton). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Peterborough keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Peterborough's recent matches and 55% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Peterborough's matches and 50% of Northampton's.
Do Peterborough and Northampton tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Northampton in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Peterborough run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Northampton 5-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 2.54 xG and Northampton 1.57 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Peterborough beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.33 / defence 1.11 against Northampton attack 1.17 / defence 1.44, drawn from 80/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 59% | Draw 18% | Northampton 23%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 62%, Northampton 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Northampton's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.72 PPG, Northampton 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Northampton (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.