Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (61%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sparta Praha face Hradec Králové.

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Fixture Analysis

Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to epet ARENA in Czech Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have gone 8W 1D 1L — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

At home, Sparta Praha have gone 9W 1D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Hradec Králové — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Hradec Králové away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

Sparta Praha hold a clear advantage across the 3 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended Sparta Praha 3–1 Hradec Králové — a Sparta Praha win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Sparta Praha and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 53% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 59% | Hradec Králové 47%). Note also that Hradec Králové surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Sparta Praha recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 70% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.61 xG and Hradec Králové 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.163 / defence 0.701 | Hradec Králové attack 0.741 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.187. Hradec Králové's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Sparta Praha have a tight defence (rating 0.701), which is pulling Hradec Králové's projected output down. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 54 games and Hradec Králové's last 54.

Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 61% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 13%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.64 | Draw 3.86 | Hradec Králové 7.56. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (61%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 40% (last 10 home games) | Hradec Králové 40% (last 10 away games).

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