Teplice 1-1 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Dukla Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 11 as Teplice welcome Dukla Praha to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Teplice have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dukla Praha — All Games: 2W 1D 6L from 9 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.78 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dukla Praha's away record: 0W 1D 3L from 4 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.78 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.60 PPG (Teplice) versus 0.78 (Dukla Praha). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Teplice trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Dukla Praha trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 78% versus Dukla Praha 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 78% | Dukla Praha 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.41 xG and Dukla Praha 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.987 / defence 1.408 | Dukla Praha attack 0.620 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.175. Data: 39 Teplice games / 9 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 45% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Dukla Praha 3.70. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 70% | Dukla Praha 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 45% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Teplice 1.41 / Dukla Praha 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.987 / def 1.408 | Dukla Praha attack 0.620 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Teplice (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Dukla Praha xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Teplice 1 - 1 Dukla Praha.
Where is Teplice vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Dukla Praha part of?
Teplice vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 45% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Teplice and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.56 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.99) and Dukla Praha's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dukla Praha's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
45%
2.21
28%
3.58
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.44
1.03
Dukla Praha xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Teplice and 1.03 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Dukla Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice's recent record stands at 2W 0D 7L from 9 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 6L across 9 games — 0.78 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 0.67 PPG, Dukla Praha on 0.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dukla Praha's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.78 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 2W 0D 7L in their last 9 games (0.67 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 (0.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Dukla Praha away?
Teplice's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 0.75 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Teplice or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Dukla Praha specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Teplice
4
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
From 6 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Dukla Praha?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 100%, Dukla Praha 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Teplice and 25% for Dukla Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dukla Praha in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Dukla Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Teplice's games and 25% of Dukla Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Teplice's matches and 25% of Dukla Praha's.
Do Teplice and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Dukla Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Dukla Praha finished level at 1-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.41 xG and Dukla Praha 1.03 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.99 / defence 1.41 against Dukla Praha attack 0.62 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 45% | Draw 28% | Dukla Praha 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 78%, Dukla Praha 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.67 PPG, Dukla Praha 0.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.