Slovan Liberec 0-5 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 43%, yet in-form FK Jablonec provide a compelling counter-argument — this Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion u Nisy plays host to Slovan Liberec versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Slovan Liberec have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FK Jablonec (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
FK Jablonec away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
FK Jablonec arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Slovan Liberec, 0 for FK Jablonec and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Feb 2024, ended Slovan Liberec 3–3 FK Jablonec — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 58% versus FK Jablonec 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 51% | FK Jablonec 39%). Note also that FK Jablonec surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Slovan Liberec recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and FK Jablonec 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 1.114 / defence 0.930 | FK Jablonec attack 0.837 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.184. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 39 games and FK Jablonec's last 39.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 26%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.32 | Draw 3.21 | FK Jablonec 3.88. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FK Jablonec (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and FK Jablonec's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 60% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.26 / FK Jablonec 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 1.114 / def 0.930 | FK Jablonec attack 0.837 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FK Jablonec xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Slovan Liberec 0 - 5 FK Jablonec.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec part of?
Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 43% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Slovan Liberec's attack at 1.11x the league average against FK Jablonec's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (0.84x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 39 games and FK Jablonec's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.21
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.19
0.92
FK Jablonec xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.3 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.92 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 13D 15L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, FK Jablonec sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (13W 14D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.29 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across their last 19 home games, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Slovan Liberec are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FK Jablonec have taken 0.95 points per game from their last 19 away games (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.29 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs FK Jablonec (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 13W 13D 15L in their last 41 games (1.27 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or FK Jablonec away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.74 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won Slovan Liberec 0-5 FK Jablonec on 5 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovan Liberec
4
Draws
3
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 3, FK Jablonec have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: FK Jablonec 1-2 Slovan Liberec.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 53%, FK Jablonec 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Slovan Liberec) and 37% (FK Jablonec).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs FK Jablonec Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 47% of FK Jablonec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 37% of FK Jablonec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and FK Jablonec matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 68% of FK Jablonec's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FK Jablonec run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Slovan Liberec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec beat Slovan Liberec 0-5 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.26 xG and FK Jablonec 0.92 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Slovan Liberec fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FK Jablonec outscored their 0.92 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 1.11 / defence 0.93 against FK Jablonec attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 43% | Draw 31% | FK Jablonec 26%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FK Jablonec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 51%, FK Jablonec 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.27 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FK Jablonec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.